The Fed’s Surprise and Yellen’s Challenge

To ask what Janet L. Yellen, the nominee to succeed Ben Bernanke as Chair of the Federal Reserve, has in store for US monetary policy is to pose the wrong question. The real issue is the decline of the Fed’s policy effectiveness.

NEWPORT BEACH – The US Federal Reserve sparked a global – and now month-long – guessing game with its decision on September 18 not to “taper” its monthly purchases of long-term securities. The Fed does not surprise markets often, and this has been especially true of the Ben Bernanke-led Fed, which has devoted enormous time and effort to better communication, greater transparency, and timely management of expectations. Now that President Barack Obama has nominated Fed Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen to succeed Bernanke in January, there is even greater interest in what lies ahead for the world’s most important central bank.

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