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Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock

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Philip E. Tetlock, University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship and Professor of Management at the University of Pennsylvania, is the co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

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  1. Better Learning Through Better Betting
    tetlock2_Scott Olson_getty Scott Olson/Getty Images

    Better Learning Through Better Betting

    May 11, 2016 Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner suggest using complex wagers with small precise questions to settle public debates.

  2. How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits?

    How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits?

    May 10, 2006 Philip E. Tetlock

  1. singer236_ohn SenterUCGUniversal Images Group via Getty Images)_trump harris ads John Senter/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
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    What Progressives Must Learn from Trump’s Campaign

    Peter Singer thinks one of the most important lessons is to uphold open debate and address hot-button issues head-on.
  2. eichengreen196_Sheng JiapengChina News ServiceVCG via Getty Images_brics Sheng Jiapeng/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images
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    The BRICS Currency Charade

    Barry Eichengreen chronicles the latest vain attempt to create an alternative to the dollar-based international monetary system.
  3. elerian174_Michael M. SantiagoGetty Images_economy Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
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    Once Again, It Was the Economy, Stupid

    Mohamed A. El-Erian

    The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris, but also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure. Will the Democrats and “establishment” experts get the message?

     explains how and why Democrats failed to connect with US voters’ pocketbook realities.
  4. COP29 Accelerating the Transition to a Decarbonized Future Event Thumbnail
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    PS Events: COP29 Live From Baku

    PS editors present the COP29 Live From Baku event.
  5. barfi27_MANDEL NGANAFP via Getty Images_trumpnetanyahu Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
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    Trumpian Turmoil Is Coming to the Middle East

    Barak Barfi thinks that the regional leaders who are cheering now may soon be pining for a less capricious leader.
  6. galbraith38_MandelNganGettyImages_democrats_funeral Mandel Ngan/Getty Images
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    The Democrats Committed Suicide This Year

    James K. Galbraith

    Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump because she received around ten million fewer votes than Joe Biden did in 2020. The Democratic Party leadership was, at best, indifferent to the erosion of voting access, negligent in retaining newer voters, and proactive in marginalizing what remained of its left wing.

     thinks the party has only itself to blame for losing the 2024 election on low voter turnout.
  7. chellaney181_JAM STA ROSAAFP via Getty Images_south china JAM STA ROSA/AFP via Getty Images
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    America Must Stand Up to Asia's Bully

    Brahma Chellaney urges Donald Trump’s incoming administration to push back against China’s aggressive expansionism.
  8. terzi6_green transition degrowth Getty Images
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    Inclusive Finance Is the Key to Climate Action

    Sophie Sirtaine calls for COP29 to address the overlooked question of how to channel funds to vulnerable communities.
  9. tharoor196_Yawar NazirGetty Images_ladakh Yawar Nazir/Getty Images
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    India’s Troubled Truce with China

    Shashi Tharoor fears that the recent agreement ending the military standoff in Ladakh will not bring the expected benefits.

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