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Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock

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Philip E. Tetlock, University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship and Professor of Management at the University of Pennsylvania, is the co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

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  1. Better Learning Through Better Betting
    tetlock2_Scott Olson_getty Scott Olson/Getty Images

    Better Learning Through Better Betting

    May 11, 2016 Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner suggest using complex wagers with small precise questions to settle public debates.

  2. How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits?

    How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits?

    May 10, 2006 Philip E. Tetlock

  1. deryugina2_ANATOLII STEPANOVAFP via Getty Images_ukraine ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images
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    Trump’s Best Hope for Peace Is to Support Ukraine

    Tatyana Deryugina, et al. warn that trying to appease Putin could cast the American president-elect as a modern-day Neville Chamberlain.
  2. picture alliance/Getty Images
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    Should Ukraine Have Nuclear Weapons?

    Slavoj Žižek dismisses the idea that firing Western missiles at Russian targets represents a dangerous escalation.
  3. fischer122_NurPhotoGettyImages_berlin_wall_35th_leaders1 NurPhoto/Getty Images
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    The End of the Liberal West

    Joschka Fischer considers what Donald Trump’s return to the White House will mean for Europe and the post-war world order.
  4. op_disparte1_SadikDemirozGetty Images_digitaldollar FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images
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    Trump’s Inflationary Triple Threat

    Maurice Obstfeld

    Contrary to the claims of techno-libertarians like Elon Musk, independent central banks have a decades-long record of successfully controlling inflation. Yet, as the Federal Reserve’s credibility and oversight capabilities become more critical than ever, US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies threaten to undermine them.

     warns that the incoming administration’s agenda would weaken the Fed and destabilize the financial system.
  5. BP trump china MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty Images
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    What Will Trump Do About China?

    US President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to take a confrontational approach to China, with tariffs as his weapon of choice. But unless his administration adopts a measured approach, his plans may end up harming American businesses and consumers, undermining US democracy, or even leading to military confrontation.

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    The Big Picture

    PS editors
  7. karman1_getty images_cooperation Getty Images
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    Human Progress in the Trump Era

    Tawakkol Karman, et al. propose ways to foster a culture of cooperation at a time of rising conflict and democratic erosion.
  8. frankel166_JemalCountessGettyImages_national_debt Jemal Countess/Getty Images
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    Elon Musk’s $2 Trillion Fiscal Fantasy

    Jeffrey Frankel dives into the incoming US administration’s absurd claim that fresh tax cuts will not increase the deficit.
  9. buchholz21_getty images_us china Getty Images
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    The Deal Trump Should Offer China

    Todd G. Buchholz proposes that the incoming US administration push for a debt write-off and market access instead of tariffs.

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