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Dan Gardner

Dan Gardner

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Dan Gardner is is the co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

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  1. Better Learning Through Better Betting
    tetlock2_Scott Olson_getty Scott Olson/Getty Images

    Better Learning Through Better Betting

    May 11, 2016 Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner suggest using complex wagers with small precise questions to settle public debates.

  1. deryugina2_ANATOLII STEPANOVAFP via Getty Images_ukraine ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images
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    Trump’s Best Hope for Peace Is to Support Ukraine

    Tatyana Deryugina, et al. warn that trying to appease Putin could cast the American president-elect as a modern-day Neville Chamberlain.
  2. picture alliance/Getty Images
    1

    Should Ukraine Have Nuclear Weapons?

    Slavoj Žižek dismisses the idea that firing Western missiles at Russian targets represents a dangerous escalation.
  3. fischer122_NurPhotoGettyImages_berlin_wall_35th_leaders1 NurPhoto/Getty Images
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    The End of the Liberal West

    Joschka Fischer considers what Donald Trump’s return to the White House will mean for Europe and the post-war world order.
  4. op_disparte1_SadikDemirozGetty Images_digitaldollar FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images
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    Trump’s Inflationary Triple Threat

    Maurice Obstfeld

    Contrary to the claims of techno-libertarians like Elon Musk, independent central banks have a decades-long record of successfully controlling inflation. Yet, as the Federal Reserve’s credibility and oversight capabilities become more critical than ever, US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies threaten to undermine them.

     warns that the incoming administration’s agenda would weaken the Fed and destabilize the financial system.
  5. BP trump china MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty Images
    1

    What Will Trump Do About China?

    US President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to take a confrontational approach to China, with tariffs as his weapon of choice. But unless his administration adopts a measured approach, his plans may end up harming American businesses and consumers, undermining US democracy, or even leading to military confrontation.

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    The Big Picture

    PS editors
  7. karman1_getty images_cooperation Getty Images
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    Human Progress in the Trump Era

    Tawakkol Karman, et al. propose ways to foster a culture of cooperation at a time of rising conflict and democratic erosion.
  8. frankel166_JemalCountessGettyImages_national_debt Jemal Countess/Getty Images
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    Elon Musk’s $2 Trillion Fiscal Fantasy

    Jeffrey Frankel dives into the incoming US administration’s absurd claim that fresh tax cuts will not increase the deficit.
  9. buchholz21_getty images_us china Getty Images
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    The Deal Trump Should Offer China

    Todd G. Buchholz proposes that the incoming US administration push for a debt write-off and market access instead of tariffs.

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