Oil Prices and Global Growth
Oil prices were not as consequential for global growth in 2015 as seemed likely at the start of the year, and strong reserve positions and relatively conservative macroeconomic policies have enabled most major producers to avoid falling into crisis. But next year could be different, and not in a good way – especially for producers.
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CAMBRIDGE – One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November 2015, most macroeconomic models suggest that the impact on global growth has been less than expected – perhaps 0.5% of global GDP.