A major new study based on a somewhat original methodology forecasts that global population will peak well before the end of this century. Although the usual caveats apply, the authors have offered fruitful new ways to grasp crucial policy questions.
NEW YORK – New research published this July in The Lancet forecasts that continued growth “through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.” Rather, the global population is likely to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion, before declining to 8.8 billion by 2100. The authors project that the populations of 23 countries – notably Japan, Thailand, Spain, and Ukraine – will be at most half their 2017 size by 2100, while the population of “another 34 countries will probably decline by 25-50%, including China, with a forecasted 48.0% decline.”
NEW YORK – New research published this July in The Lancet forecasts that continued growth “through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.” Rather, the global population is likely to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion, before declining to 8.8 billion by 2100. The authors project that the populations of 23 countries – notably Japan, Thailand, Spain, and Ukraine – will be at most half their 2017 size by 2100, while the population of “another 34 countries will probably decline by 25-50%, including China, with a forecasted 48.0% decline.”