Enormous progress has often been made during periods of crisis. That may well be true in the United States, as factors related to health, information, and power – namely, GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, the democratization of knowledge, and a dramatic decline in energy costs – shift the economic landscape.
SAN DIEGO – While headlines scream about America’s $35.5 trillion national debt and President Donald Trump’s drive to “drain the swamp” in Washington, three factors are reshaping the US economic terrain. I call them the “HIP” factors – health, information, and power – and they could confound the doom-mongers.
For decades, Americans have been putting on pounds and waddling toward a health disaster. The US adult obesity rate climbed from 30.5% in 2000 to more than 41.9% in 2020, increasing the risk of health problems such as diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. But in 2023 something remarkable happened: the obesity rate fell by 0.4 percentage points – the first drop in at least a decade. That is more than one million Americans stepping back from the brink of danger (and the need to buy bigger clothes).
Many are attributing this decrease to the revolutionary GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy. Initially developed to treat diabetes, these drugs have proved stunningly effective for weight loss, capturing public attention and investor confidence. Morgan Stanley expects the global weight-loss drug market, valued at nearly $15 billion in 2024, to balloon to $77 billion by 2030. This innovation could drastically cut health-care costs while extending life expectancy and fostering a heathier workforce.
But it’s not just drugs. Wearable tech like Apple Watches and Fitbits can now track everything from heart rate to blood oxygen level, empowering individuals to take control of their well-being. US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a 71-year-old who flaunts his toned physique in shirtlessworkout videos, aims to “Make America Healthy Again.” That could include reinstating the Presidential Physical Fitness Test that his Uncle Jack championed and President Barack Obama later eliminated. When I was a kid, the annual event encouraged us to practice pull-ups and 50-yard dashes. Many kids today wouldn’t recognize a pull-up, but they all know Pop-Tarts.
The information revolution has turned the economics of knowledge on its head. In 1959, the soul singer Sam Cooke recorded “Wonderful World,” crooning “Don’t know much about history, don’t know much biology” – no wonder, given that a set of encyclopedias cost thousands of dollars back then. Today, the marginal cost of accessing virtually unlimited information is zero, owing to the internet and platforms such as Coursera and Khan Academy. Enrollment in “massive online open courses” surged from 300,000 in 2011 to 220 million in 2021. A teenager in Appalachia can study coding or Dante from professors at elite institutions for free, reducing barriers to education. According to the World Bank, every additional year of schooling increases lifetime earnings by an average of 10%.
AI is accelerating this trend. The technology holds immense potential as an educational tool, particularly for customizing learning. Moreover, while critics worry about AI displacing jobs, large language models like ChatGPT and Claude are already boosting productivity, with small businesses deploying them for marketing, customer service, and even product development.
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Lastly, there is power: energy costs, a perennial drag on household budgets, have decreased dramatically. The price of crude oil has fallen roughly 40% from its 2022 peak, with West Texas Intermediate crude now hovering around $66 per barrel. This decline, bolstered by Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra, has lowered gasoline prices, with the national average dropping to $3.09 per gallon as of March 10, from a high of $5.02 in June 2022. That could save the average American family some $1,200 per year on energy expenditure – a significant boost to disposable income.
To meet the growing energy needs of data centers, tech companies like Amazon and Google are developing small modular nuclear reactors and energy-storage systems that can ensure a more reliable supply of wind and solar power. We should marvel at firms that reinvent themselves amid economic turmoil. On a recent visit to Oregon, I learned that Powin, a local company that used to make trampolines and cooking skillets for campers, now produces world-class storage batteries.
Critics will argue that these trends mask deeper problems in the US economy. They are not entirely wrong. Interest on the national debt is estimated to reach $952 billion this year, threatening long-term fiscal stability. At the same time, Trump’s tariffs are shaking up global trade.
But enormous progress has often been made during tumultuous periods. In 1979, when US President Jimmy Carter delivered his dispiriting “malaise speech” about the country’s crisis of confidence, inflation raged at 11.3%, and gas lines stretched for miles, few predicted the 1980s boom. Similarly, as the financial system crashed in late 2008 and 2009, hardly anyone foresaw the technological revolution to come.
Rather than fixating on endless political sniping, we should recognize the innovations and developments that are propelling the US economy forward. Health breakthroughs like GLP-1 drugs could save millions of lives and billions of dollars. The democratization of information empowers individuals and accelerates growth. Lower power costs provide relief. These HIP factors are a prescription for optimism that even hardened pessimists cannot ignore.
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US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have triggered a wave of retaliatory measures, setting off a trade war with key partners and raising fears of a global downturn. But while Trump’s protectionism and erratic policy shifts could have far-reaching implications, the greatest victim is likely to be the United States itself.
warns that the new administration’s protectionism resembles the strategy many developing countries once tried.
It took a pandemic and the threat of war to get Germany to dispense with the two taboos – against debt and monetary financing of budgets – that have strangled its governments for decades. Now, it must join the rest of Europe in offering a positive vision of self-sufficiency and an “anti-fascist economic policy.”
welcomes the apparent departure from two policy taboos that have strangled the country's investment.
SAN DIEGO – While headlines scream about America’s $35.5 trillion national debt and President Donald Trump’s drive to “drain the swamp” in Washington, three factors are reshaping the US economic terrain. I call them the “HIP” factors – health, information, and power – and they could confound the doom-mongers.
For decades, Americans have been putting on pounds and waddling toward a health disaster. The US adult obesity rate climbed from 30.5% in 2000 to more than 41.9% in 2020, increasing the risk of health problems such as diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. But in 2023 something remarkable happened: the obesity rate fell by 0.4 percentage points – the first drop in at least a decade. That is more than one million Americans stepping back from the brink of danger (and the need to buy bigger clothes).
Many are attributing this decrease to the revolutionary GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy. Initially developed to treat diabetes, these drugs have proved stunningly effective for weight loss, capturing public attention and investor confidence. Morgan Stanley expects the global weight-loss drug market, valued at nearly $15 billion in 2024, to balloon to $77 billion by 2030. This innovation could drastically cut health-care costs while extending life expectancy and fostering a heathier workforce.
But it’s not just drugs. Wearable tech like Apple Watches and Fitbits can now track everything from heart rate to blood oxygen level, empowering individuals to take control of their well-being. US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a 71-year-old who flaunts his toned physique in shirtless workout videos, aims to “Make America Healthy Again.” That could include reinstating the Presidential Physical Fitness Test that his Uncle Jack championed and President Barack Obama later eliminated. When I was a kid, the annual event encouraged us to practice pull-ups and 50-yard dashes. Many kids today wouldn’t recognize a pull-up, but they all know Pop-Tarts.
The information revolution has turned the economics of knowledge on its head. In 1959, the soul singer Sam Cooke recorded “Wonderful World,” crooning “Don’t know much about history, don’t know much biology” – no wonder, given that a set of encyclopedias cost thousands of dollars back then. Today, the marginal cost of accessing virtually unlimited information is zero, owing to the internet and platforms such as Coursera and Khan Academy. Enrollment in “massive online open courses” surged from 300,000 in 2011 to 220 million in 2021. A teenager in Appalachia can study coding or Dante from professors at elite institutions for free, reducing barriers to education. According to the World Bank, every additional year of schooling increases lifetime earnings by an average of 10%.
AI is accelerating this trend. The technology holds immense potential as an educational tool, particularly for customizing learning. Moreover, while critics worry about AI displacing jobs, large language models like ChatGPT and Claude are already boosting productivity, with small businesses deploying them for marketing, customer service, and even product development.
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At a time of escalating global turmoil, there is an urgent need for incisive, informed analysis of the issues and questions driving the news – just what PS has always provided.
Subscribe to Digital or Digital Plus now to secure your discount.
Subscribe Now
Lastly, there is power: energy costs, a perennial drag on household budgets, have decreased dramatically. The price of crude oil has fallen roughly 40% from its 2022 peak, with West Texas Intermediate crude now hovering around $66 per barrel. This decline, bolstered by Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra, has lowered gasoline prices, with the national average dropping to $3.09 per gallon as of March 10, from a high of $5.02 in June 2022. That could save the average American family some $1,200 per year on energy expenditure – a significant boost to disposable income.
To meet the growing energy needs of data centers, tech companies like Amazon and Google are developing small modular nuclear reactors and energy-storage systems that can ensure a more reliable supply of wind and solar power. We should marvel at firms that reinvent themselves amid economic turmoil. On a recent visit to Oregon, I learned that Powin, a local company that used to make trampolines and cooking skillets for campers, now produces world-class storage batteries.
Critics will argue that these trends mask deeper problems in the US economy. They are not entirely wrong. Interest on the national debt is estimated to reach $952 billion this year, threatening long-term fiscal stability. At the same time, Trump’s tariffs are shaking up global trade.
But enormous progress has often been made during tumultuous periods. In 1979, when US President Jimmy Carter delivered his dispiriting “malaise speech” about the country’s crisis of confidence, inflation raged at 11.3%, and gas lines stretched for miles, few predicted the 1980s boom. Similarly, as the financial system crashed in late 2008 and 2009, hardly anyone foresaw the technological revolution to come.
Rather than fixating on endless political sniping, we should recognize the innovations and developments that are propelling the US economy forward. Health breakthroughs like GLP-1 drugs could save millions of lives and billions of dollars. The democratization of information empowers individuals and accelerates growth. Lower power costs provide relief. These HIP factors are a prescription for optimism that even hardened pessimists cannot ignore.