Thanks to innovations in AI and battery technology, most developing economies will have outgrown their need for gas within a decade. So, rather than get locked into 30-year “bridging” contracts with fossil-fuel companies, these countries must go all in on the clean-energy transition – with the international community’s help.
SAINT JOHN’S – Last week, heads of state, ministers of finance and energy, investors, civil-society groups, and energy-industry leaders convened in Barbados for the Sustainable Energy for All (SEforAll) Forum. The conference’s theme – Sustainable Energy for Equity, Security, and Prosperity – captured an often-underappreciated reality: the clean-energy transition is vital not only to protect the planet, but also to enhance economic resilience and energy security in an uncertain global setting.
To be sure, the environmental imperative should not be underestimated, especially in small island developing states (SIDS) like Antigua and Barbuda, which are on the front lines of the climate crisis. In 2017, Hurricane Irma decimated my country in mere hours, with nearly every building on our islands being damaged by the storm’s 220 mile-per-hour winds. Cleanup and reconstruction cost more than $222 million, according to World Bank calculations, yet we still bear the scars, physical and economic, eight years later. And that is just one example: storms, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and fisheries displacement are costing us dearly, and in a rapidly warming world, we know worse is to come.
But, today, we also know that the energy transition – specifically, the transition to domestically produced renewables – is essential to support economic resilience and energy security as well. Reliance on imported fossil fuels like liquefied natural gas (LNG) exposes our countries to volatile price swings, supply disruptions, and budget strains. And, unlike highly flammable methane, with its adverse safety, health, and climate effects, the sun and wind are not subject to market speculation or rising geopolitical risk.
In the corridors of the SEforAll Forum, fossil-fuel executives read from their usual script, claiming that their products remain a vital “bridging” solution for the energy transition. But the time period that must be “bridged” will likely be far shorter than the 30-year contracts they are pressing SIDS and other emerging economies to sign. In fact, current trends suggest that most emerging and developing economies will have outgrown their need for gas within a decade.
One reason for this is artificial intelligence, which is helping to match variable renewable-energy supplies with fluctuations in demand, thereby facilitating the integration of renewables into electricity grids. The plummeting cost of energy storage systems is also helping, as advanced battery technology reduces the need for back-up supplies of fossil fuels. The effect is so pronounced that some gas and coal power-plant projects have already been paused or canceled. New LNG projects are now considered risky investments, most of which will not recover their initial capital outlays.
Meanwhile, investors are flocking to clean energy, which attracted almost double the funding that fossil fuels did last year. This is good news: a rapid clean-energy transition will require large upfront investments – far more than business as usual. But the payoff will be enormous: a nearly 20% reduction in energy costs for emerging-economy consumers by 2050, compared to continued fossil-fuel dependency.
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It is with these considerations in mind that Antigua and Barbuda became the first non-Pacific country to endorse a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, an international transition pact to phase out oil, gas, and coal. We are also committed to achieving 100% clean power by 2030, and a fully electrified transport fleet by 2040.
But we can’t do it alone. As climate disasters proliferate and intensify, so do the costs of recovery. This leaves our government with little choice but to borrow at high interest rates, compounding our already burdensome national debt. As my friend Mia Amor Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, has long argued, we need development banks to do their jobs, not protect their AAA credit status.
That is why Antigua and Barbuda and our fellow SIDS are calling upon all countries to pursue five key objectives. First, strengthen the energy transition and climate commitments, including by phasing out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Second, mobilize transformative climate finance at scale, including through levies and debt-for-climate swaps. Third, bolster renewable-energy deployment by strengthening existing implementation platforms. Fourth, augment institutional capacity and facilitate knowledge-sharing in clean energy and energy efficiency, especially through South-South cooperation. Finally, enhance resilience – such as by promoting the adoption of electric-cooking technologies – and adaptation.
This agenda is essential to safeguard our planet – the basis of our health, security, and prosperity. When the stakes are this high, we cannot afford alternatives.
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SAINT JOHN’S – Last week, heads of state, ministers of finance and energy, investors, civil-society groups, and energy-industry leaders convened in Barbados for the Sustainable Energy for All (SEforAll) Forum. The conference’s theme – Sustainable Energy for Equity, Security, and Prosperity – captured an often-underappreciated reality: the clean-energy transition is vital not only to protect the planet, but also to enhance economic resilience and energy security in an uncertain global setting.
To be sure, the environmental imperative should not be underestimated, especially in small island developing states (SIDS) like Antigua and Barbuda, which are on the front lines of the climate crisis. In 2017, Hurricane Irma decimated my country in mere hours, with nearly every building on our islands being damaged by the storm’s 220 mile-per-hour winds. Cleanup and reconstruction cost more than $222 million, according to World Bank calculations, yet we still bear the scars, physical and economic, eight years later. And that is just one example: storms, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and fisheries displacement are costing us dearly, and in a rapidly warming world, we know worse is to come.
But, today, we also know that the energy transition – specifically, the transition to domestically produced renewables – is essential to support economic resilience and energy security as well. Reliance on imported fossil fuels like liquefied natural gas (LNG) exposes our countries to volatile price swings, supply disruptions, and budget strains. And, unlike highly flammable methane, with its adverse safety, health, and climate effects, the sun and wind are not subject to market speculation or rising geopolitical risk.
In the corridors of the SEforAll Forum, fossil-fuel executives read from their usual script, claiming that their products remain a vital “bridging” solution for the energy transition. But the time period that must be “bridged” will likely be far shorter than the 30-year contracts they are pressing SIDS and other emerging economies to sign. In fact, current trends suggest that most emerging and developing economies will have outgrown their need for gas within a decade.
One reason for this is artificial intelligence, which is helping to match variable renewable-energy supplies with fluctuations in demand, thereby facilitating the integration of renewables into electricity grids. The plummeting cost of energy storage systems is also helping, as advanced battery technology reduces the need for back-up supplies of fossil fuels. The effect is so pronounced that some gas and coal power-plant projects have already been paused or canceled. New LNG projects are now considered risky investments, most of which will not recover their initial capital outlays.
Meanwhile, investors are flocking to clean energy, which attracted almost double the funding that fossil fuels did last year. This is good news: a rapid clean-energy transition will require large upfront investments – far more than business as usual. But the payoff will be enormous: a nearly 20% reduction in energy costs for emerging-economy consumers by 2050, compared to continued fossil-fuel dependency.
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Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.
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It is with these considerations in mind that Antigua and Barbuda became the first non-Pacific country to endorse a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, an international transition pact to phase out oil, gas, and coal. We are also committed to achieving 100% clean power by 2030, and a fully electrified transport fleet by 2040.
But we can’t do it alone. As climate disasters proliferate and intensify, so do the costs of recovery. This leaves our government with little choice but to borrow at high interest rates, compounding our already burdensome national debt. As my friend Mia Amor Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, has long argued, we need development banks to do their jobs, not protect their AAA credit status.
That is why Antigua and Barbuda and our fellow SIDS are calling upon all countries to pursue five key objectives. First, strengthen the energy transition and climate commitments, including by phasing out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Second, mobilize transformative climate finance at scale, including through levies and debt-for-climate swaps. Third, bolster renewable-energy deployment by strengthening existing implementation platforms. Fourth, augment institutional capacity and facilitate knowledge-sharing in clean energy and energy efficiency, especially through South-South cooperation. Finally, enhance resilience – such as by promoting the adoption of electric-cooking technologies – and adaptation.
This agenda is essential to safeguard our planet – the basis of our health, security, and prosperity. When the stakes are this high, we cannot afford alternatives.