The exponential increase in EVs suggests that they will take over the global auto market by the early 2040s. This will send oil prices plummeting, with profound economic and geopolitical consequences.
BEIJING/WASHINGTON, DC – Four years ago, we argued that the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) would upend both the auto industry and the oil market. As with the rapid displacement of horses by motor vehicles in the United States a century ago, the exponential increase in EVs would result in their takeover of the global auto market by the early 2040s. Oil would become the new coal, with prices continuing to converge, in energy equivalent terms, to about $15 a barrel. The economic and geopolitical consequences would be profound.
BEIJING/WASHINGTON, DC – Four years ago, we argued that the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) would upend both the auto industry and the oil market. As with the rapid displacement of horses by motor vehicles in the United States a century ago, the exponential increase in EVs would result in their takeover of the global auto market by the early 2040s. Oil would become the new coal, with prices continuing to converge, in energy equivalent terms, to about $15 a barrel. The economic and geopolitical consequences would be profound.