After last year's economic collapse, the prospects for a strong cyclical recovery have always been strong. And judging by a series of must-watch high-frequency indicators, the long-awaited boom has arrived and seems likely to continue building – at least in the near term.
LONDON – For much of the past year, I have argued that a cyclical economic recovery from the COVID-19 disruption would be stronger than most people expected. In offering that outlook, my emphasis was on the cyclical (rather than structural) nature of the crisis: the lockdowns were always going to be only temporary; safe and effective vaccines have been brought to market with unprecedented speed; and governments have duly responded to the shock with massive levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
LONDON – For much of the past year, I have argued that a cyclical economic recovery from the COVID-19 disruption would be stronger than most people expected. In offering that outlook, my emphasis was on the cyclical (rather than structural) nature of the crisis: the lockdowns were always going to be only temporary; safe and effective vaccines have been brought to market with unprecedented speed; and governments have duly responded to the shock with massive levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus.