With so many voters suffering financially and showing an eagerness to “throw the bums out,” delivering higher living standards appears to be a necessary condition for restoring political stability to the world’s democracies. But are today’s political leaders and their advisers up to the challenge?
STANFORD – In Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass, published more than 150 years ago as the sequel to Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, everything is reversed, like your reflection in a mirror. Running keeps you stationary, walking away from someone brings you closer to them, and inanimate objects like chess pieces are alive.
Recent political and economic events in the United States have sometimes created the same disorienting impression. In a move worthy of Machiavelli, Democratic Party elders, led by former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, deposed a declining President Joe Biden and anointed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee for president. Yet it was only last year that Harris registered the worst approval rating of any vice president in the history of modern polling.
At the time,Republicans were duly ridiculing her “word salad” responses to unscripted questioning and calling attention to her radical previous policy positions. It was obvious to everyone why she had ended her 2020 presidential campaign in 2019, before any votes were cast. But following the surprisingly successful launch of her new campaign, she is now slightly ahead in the polls. The left-leaning mainstream media is treating her like the second coming of Joan of Arc, imputing to her Mother Teresa’s righteousness and Margaret Thatcher’s steeliness.
Given that the often-fractious Democrats are now united by their desire to remain in power, if Donald Trump keeps criticizing popular Republicans like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, he will likely lose. But if Trump regains the surprising discipline he showed earlier in the campaign against Biden, when he was focusing more on policy, he may have a good chance. After all, he has a decided advantage on the issues that voters are most concerned about: the economy, inflation, and immigration (Harris’s own main advantage where policy is concerned is abortion).
So far, however, policy has scarcely factored into the campaign. Instead, the two contenders are exchanging personal insults, with Harris calling Trump a “weird” coward, and Trump calling Harris a socialist and questioning whether she is Black.
America is not alone in experiencing an unanticipated upheaval. Five years ago, it seemed inconceivable that a major ground war would occur on the European continent, or that Europeans who had been lazily free-riding on America’s defense budget would suddenly adopt a new outlook.
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Nor were Iran and its proxies on most leaders’ radars. Less than a year ago, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, boasted that the Middle East was quieter than it “had been in two decades.” Days later, Hamas attacked Israel, triggering the latest Gaza war and attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on shipping off the Yemeni coast. The risk of a wider war with Hezbollah in Lebanon is higher than it has been in years, and Iran continues to close in on developing a nuclear weapon.
Likewise, following China’s economic liberalization and success in reducing poverty among its people, many hoped that a political opening would follow. But President Xi Jinping has instead backtracked – both politically and economically. Worse, a China-Russia-Iran-North Korean axis of political, financial, and military mutual support has emerged to challenge the West’s capitalist democracies.
Why do democracies everywhere seem to be in such disarray? Part of the answer involves the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only were these the two most severe economic disruptions since World War II, but they came at a time when blue-collar workers were facing mounting pressure from globalization, technological change, and immigration.
These were the political conditions behind the recent rise of right-wing governments in Sweden and Italy, and the crushing defeat of center and left-wing parties in this year’s European Parliament elections. A resurgent National Rally handily won the first round of the French elections this summer, and was thwarted only by a last-minute deal between centrist and left-wing parties to combine their support.
In Spain, the Socialists have stayed in power by brokering an amnesty for Catalan separatists. And in the United Kingdom, 14 years of Tory rule ended with infighting and backstabbing. Labour sailed to victory under the leadership of Keir Starmer, a more traditional left-wing figure (though he is no Tony Blair) who defenestrated the party’s former leader, Jeremy Corbyn, a socialist associated with widespread anti-Semitism within the party.
All this political turmoil may simply reflect the fact that voters who are financially struggling want to “throw the bums out.” In that case, delivering higher living standards is a necessary condition for restoring political stability.
But where are the kinds of clear-eyed, tough-minded, grand strategic thinkers who helped previous American presidents navigate complex and dangerous times? Harry Truman had George Marshall and George F. Kennan to help him create a global economic and geopolitical commons, while containing the spread of a nuclear-armed Soviet empire. Richard Nixon had Henry Kissinger, who helped him play the “China card” against the Soviets, end the Vietnam War, and conduct shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East. Ronald Reagan had George P. Shultz when he was staring down the Soviets and ending the Cold War; and George H.W. Bush had Jim Baker to help him navigate the breakup of the Soviet Union, German reunification, and the first Gulf War.
Would a President Trump or a President Harris seek the advice of equally experienced and knowledgeable figures such as Condoleezza Rice or Leon Panetta? One hopes so, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Fortunately, in addition to Europe finally waking up (though some NATO countries still need to do more), we now have AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US; a beefed-up “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing pact that also includes Canada and New Zealand; and new defense commitments from Japan. Combined with the US Congress overriding Biden’s annual attempt to cut real military spending, these developments make for a good start. But if we want to get back to the other side of the looking glass, we must realize it is only a start – not even a midpoint, let alone a satisfactory ending.
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While inflation and price growth have fallen in advanced economies, they remain stubbornly high in Africa, owing to rising food prices, the lack of formal employment opportunities, and austerity measures. The resulting protests in Nigeria and Kenya should encourage governments to rethink constraints on public spending.
urges governments to rethink constraints on public spending and increase investment in human capital.
Kishore Mahbubani
offers advice to Western diplomats attempting to engage with Asia, identifies risks to the region’s stability, highlights Singapore’s lessons for developing-country leaders, and more.
The implications of the deepening Sino-American rift are far-reaching, because several of the world’s most pressing economic problems can be solved only with contributions from both countries. And, to address global challenges, active cooperation between the two economic powers is indispensable.
hopes that political will on both sides catches up with the opporunities for cooperation that now exist.
STANFORD – In Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass, published more than 150 years ago as the sequel to Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, everything is reversed, like your reflection in a mirror. Running keeps you stationary, walking away from someone brings you closer to them, and inanimate objects like chess pieces are alive.
Recent political and economic events in the United States have sometimes created the same disorienting impression. In a move worthy of Machiavelli, Democratic Party elders, led by former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, deposed a declining President Joe Biden and anointed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee for president. Yet it was only last year that Harris registered the worst approval rating of any vice president in the history of modern polling.
At the time, Republicans were duly ridiculing her “word salad” responses to unscripted questioning and calling attention to her radical previous policy positions. It was obvious to everyone why she had ended her 2020 presidential campaign in 2019, before any votes were cast. But following the surprisingly successful launch of her new campaign, she is now slightly ahead in the polls. The left-leaning mainstream media is treating her like the second coming of Joan of Arc, imputing to her Mother Teresa’s righteousness and Margaret Thatcher’s steeliness.
Given that the often-fractious Democrats are now united by their desire to remain in power, if Donald Trump keeps criticizing popular Republicans like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, he will likely lose. But if Trump regains the surprising discipline he showed earlier in the campaign against Biden, when he was focusing more on policy, he may have a good chance. After all, he has a decided advantage on the issues that voters are most concerned about: the economy, inflation, and immigration (Harris’s own main advantage where policy is concerned is abortion).
So far, however, policy has scarcely factored into the campaign. Instead, the two contenders are exchanging personal insults, with Harris calling Trump a “weird” coward, and Trump calling Harris a socialist and questioning whether she is Black.
America is not alone in experiencing an unanticipated upheaval. Five years ago, it seemed inconceivable that a major ground war would occur on the European continent, or that Europeans who had been lazily free-riding on America’s defense budget would suddenly adopt a new outlook.
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Nor were Iran and its proxies on most leaders’ radars. Less than a year ago, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, boasted that the Middle East was quieter than it “had been in two decades.” Days later, Hamas attacked Israel, triggering the latest Gaza war and attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on shipping off the Yemeni coast. The risk of a wider war with Hezbollah in Lebanon is higher than it has been in years, and Iran continues to close in on developing a nuclear weapon.
Likewise, following China’s economic liberalization and success in reducing poverty among its people, many hoped that a political opening would follow. But President Xi Jinping has instead backtracked – both politically and economically. Worse, a China-Russia-Iran-North Korean axis of political, financial, and military mutual support has emerged to challenge the West’s capitalist democracies.
Why do democracies everywhere seem to be in such disarray? Part of the answer involves the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only were these the two most severe economic disruptions since World War II, but they came at a time when blue-collar workers were facing mounting pressure from globalization, technological change, and immigration.
These were the political conditions behind the recent rise of right-wing governments in Sweden and Italy, and the crushing defeat of center and left-wing parties in this year’s European Parliament elections. A resurgent National Rally handily won the first round of the French elections this summer, and was thwarted only by a last-minute deal between centrist and left-wing parties to combine their support.
In Spain, the Socialists have stayed in power by brokering an amnesty for Catalan separatists. And in the United Kingdom, 14 years of Tory rule ended with infighting and backstabbing. Labour sailed to victory under the leadership of Keir Starmer, a more traditional left-wing figure (though he is no Tony Blair) who defenestrated the party’s former leader, Jeremy Corbyn, a socialist associated with widespread anti-Semitism within the party.
All this political turmoil may simply reflect the fact that voters who are financially struggling want to “throw the bums out.” In that case, delivering higher living standards is a necessary condition for restoring political stability.
But where are the kinds of clear-eyed, tough-minded, grand strategic thinkers who helped previous American presidents navigate complex and dangerous times? Harry Truman had George Marshall and George F. Kennan to help him create a global economic and geopolitical commons, while containing the spread of a nuclear-armed Soviet empire. Richard Nixon had Henry Kissinger, who helped him play the “China card” against the Soviets, end the Vietnam War, and conduct shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East. Ronald Reagan had George P. Shultz when he was staring down the Soviets and ending the Cold War; and George H.W. Bush had Jim Baker to help him navigate the breakup of the Soviet Union, German reunification, and the first Gulf War.
Would a President Trump or a President Harris seek the advice of equally experienced and knowledgeable figures such as Condoleezza Rice or Leon Panetta? One hopes so, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Fortunately, in addition to Europe finally waking up (though some NATO countries still need to do more), we now have AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US; a beefed-up “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing pact that also includes Canada and New Zealand; and new defense commitments from Japan. Combined with the US Congress overriding Biden’s annual attempt to cut real military spending, these developments make for a good start. But if we want to get back to the other side of the looking glass, we must realize it is only a start – not even a midpoint, let alone a satisfactory ending.