As host of COP30, Brazil is committed to lead by example through decisive action at home and abroad. But to ensure a successful summit, every country must come to Belém committed to developing and implementing ambitious national goals, and to creating international enabling conditions that accelerate climate action that leaves no one behind.
BRASÍLIA – Later this year, Brazil will preside over the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém. It is a significant responsibility. As the world marks the tenth anniversary of the Paris climate agreement, there is a heightened sense of urgency about global warming, which has morphed from a future threat into a present emergency. On current trends, the cap on global warming envisioned by the Paris agreement – 1.5° Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels – will not be achieved, and holding this COP in Belém will highlight the pressure on the Amazon, one of the world’s most beautiful regions, but also a climate tipping point.
Despite scientists’ clear warnings that we are dangerously close to exceeding the planet’s limits, emissions records continue to be broken. In 2023, the world generated57.1 billion tons of greenhouse gases, leading to a carbon dioxide surface concentration of420 parts per million. The last time Earth’s CO2 concentration was so high was14 million years ago.
The Paris agreement’s first decade helped the world to redirect the business-as-usual trajectory from an increase of 4-5°C by the end of this century. As matters stand, if every country meets its 2030 climate targets, the global average temperature is expected to increase 2.6°C. Our role now, at COP30, is to create a roadmap for the next decade to accelerate implementation and to increase ambition to get us to 1.5°C.
Unfortunately, emissions and temperatures have continued to climb since 2015, and the geopolitical landscape has become more unstable and fragmented, with ongoing wars in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, in addition to sharply deteriorating relations between the United States and China. International fora have become political battlegrounds, with little attention paid to the topic under discussion.
This shift was apparent at COP29 – dubbed the “finance COP” – in Baku, Azerbaijan. Some key developed-country governments adopted positions that served their short-term national interests, with no regard for the global consequences. These governments also waited until the summit’s penultimate day to present their proposed financial commitments, delaying debate over the resources that developing countries need to pursue the green transition. This is a self-defeating strategy – not least because global warming does not respect borders. If we fail to create the conditions for all countries to shift to low-carbon growth paths, everyone will suffer.
Ultimately, delegates left Baku with an agreement on carbon-market standards and a pledge by rich countries to provide $300 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries. It was an important, but small step forward at a time when big strides are needed. But this outcome, which shows that multilateralism is still possible, has set the stage for more ambitious action in Belém.
Secure your copy of PS Quarterly: The Year Ahead 2025
Our annual flagship magazine, PS Quarterly: The Year Ahead 2025, has arrived. To gain digital access to all of the magazine’s content, and receive your print copy, subscribe to PS Digital Plus now.
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Hopes are high that COP30 will be a turning point for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. With a global stocktake completed at COP28 and the Paris agreement rulebook finalized at COP29, the main task in Belém will be to accelerate the implementation of existing agreements. Our goal at COP30 is to translate promises into practice.
But for that to happen, countries must deliver ambitious and detailed nationally determined contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP30. Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates have set a high bar with their updated NDCs, which were submitted at COP29. Now other countries must rise to the challenge. At last year’s G20 summit, Brazilian PresidentLuiz Inácio Lula da Silvaurged member countries to bring forward their climate-neutrality targets from 2050 to 2040 or 2045, while UN Secretary-GeneralAntónio Guterrespushed for implementation of the new targets set in response to the global stocktake.
Meanwhile, emerging economies are encouraged to present NDCs covering all sectors and greenhouse gases, including absolute emission-reduction targets aligned with the 1.5°C goal. And developing countries should deliver NDCs that reconcile their pre-existing development objectives with ambitious emissions reductions and continue to move their economies along a low-carbon trajectory.
We expect that countries will arrive in Belém ready to discuss how to advance the implementation of the promises made under the global stocktake. This process must include agreements and steps toward tripling renewable-energy capacity, doubling energy-efficiency measures, accelerating the transition from fossil fuels, ending deforestation, and increasing reforestation. Ultimately, our role at COP30 is to redirect global efforts to the creation of conditions at the international level that facilitate and accelerate national efforts. The aim should be to help countries achieve these agreed goals in a fast and just manner.
To enable developing countries to overcome the barriers to pursuing a low-carbon development path – namely, unsustainable debt burdens and high borrowing costs – the global financial architecture must support climate goals. To that end, Brazil established the G20 Taskforce on a Global Mobilization against Climate Change during its presidency of the group last year. In Belém, we must establish a credible strategy to mobilize $1.3 trillion for developing countries and create a plan to align financial flows – public and private, national and international – with the Paris agreement targets. Governments and multilateral institutions will have multiple opportunities to advance negotiations on these issues throughout the year, including at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s spring and fall meetings and the International Conference on Financing for Development in June.
Given the increasing frequency and severity of climate shocks, adaptation has become a top priority, especially in vulnerable communities. This year, countries must finalize their national adaptation plans, specifying the private and public investment required to realize them. And at COP30, delegates should adopt the global adaptation indicators, creating a common language to discuss the impact of climate change around the world.
Focusing on adaptation does not imply reduced mitigation efforts. For much of the developing world, mitigation and adaptation happen simultaneously, as part of development. In today’s world, new homes, cities, energy sources, factories, and infrastructure must be built with both minimal emissions and maximum resiliency at their core.
As host of COP30, Brazil is committed to lead by example through decisive action at home and abroad. But one country acting alone cannot restore the trust needed for a successful summit. Every country must come to Belém committed to developing and implementing ambitious national goals, and to creating international enabling conditions that accelerate climate action that leaves no one behind. Only then can we make COP30 the climate turning point the world needs.
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BRASÍLIA – Later this year, Brazil will preside over the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém. It is a significant responsibility. As the world marks the tenth anniversary of the Paris climate agreement, there is a heightened sense of urgency about global warming, which has morphed from a future threat into a present emergency. On current trends, the cap on global warming envisioned by the Paris agreement – 1.5° Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels – will not be achieved, and holding this COP in Belém will highlight the pressure on the Amazon, one of the world’s most beautiful regions, but also a climate tipping point.
Despite scientists’ clear warnings that we are dangerously close to exceeding the planet’s limits, emissions records continue to be broken. In 2023, the world generated 57.1 billion tons of greenhouse gases, leading to a carbon dioxide surface concentration of 420 parts per million. The last time Earth’s CO2 concentration was so high was 14 million years ago.
The Paris agreement’s first decade helped the world to redirect the business-as-usual trajectory from an increase of 4-5°C by the end of this century. As matters stand, if every country meets its 2030 climate targets, the global average temperature is expected to increase 2.6°C. Our role now, at COP30, is to create a roadmap for the next decade to accelerate implementation and to increase ambition to get us to 1.5°C.
Unfortunately, emissions and temperatures have continued to climb since 2015, and the geopolitical landscape has become more unstable and fragmented, with ongoing wars in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, in addition to sharply deteriorating relations between the United States and China. International fora have become political battlegrounds, with little attention paid to the topic under discussion.
This shift was apparent at COP29 – dubbed the “finance COP” – in Baku, Azerbaijan. Some key developed-country governments adopted positions that served their short-term national interests, with no regard for the global consequences. These governments also waited until the summit’s penultimate day to present their proposed financial commitments, delaying debate over the resources that developing countries need to pursue the green transition. This is a self-defeating strategy – not least because global warming does not respect borders. If we fail to create the conditions for all countries to shift to low-carbon growth paths, everyone will suffer.
Ultimately, delegates left Baku with an agreement on carbon-market standards and a pledge by rich countries to provide $300 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries. It was an important, but small step forward at a time when big strides are needed. But this outcome, which shows that multilateralism is still possible, has set the stage for more ambitious action in Belém.
Secure your copy of PS Quarterly: The Year Ahead 2025
Our annual flagship magazine, PS Quarterly: The Year Ahead 2025, has arrived. To gain digital access to all of the magazine’s content, and receive your print copy, subscribe to PS Digital Plus now.
Subscribe Now
Hopes are high that COP30 will be a turning point for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. With a global stocktake completed at COP28 and the Paris agreement rulebook finalized at COP29, the main task in Belém will be to accelerate the implementation of existing agreements. Our goal at COP30 is to translate promises into practice.
But for that to happen, countries must deliver ambitious and detailed nationally determined contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP30. Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates have set a high bar with their updated NDCs, which were submitted at COP29. Now other countries must rise to the challenge. At last year’s G20 summit, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva urged member countries to bring forward their climate-neutrality targets from 2050 to 2040 or 2045, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres pushed for implementation of the new targets set in response to the global stocktake.
Meanwhile, emerging economies are encouraged to present NDCs covering all sectors and greenhouse gases, including absolute emission-reduction targets aligned with the 1.5°C goal. And developing countries should deliver NDCs that reconcile their pre-existing development objectives with ambitious emissions reductions and continue to move their economies along a low-carbon trajectory.
We expect that countries will arrive in Belém ready to discuss how to advance the implementation of the promises made under the global stocktake. This process must include agreements and steps toward tripling renewable-energy capacity, doubling energy-efficiency measures, accelerating the transition from fossil fuels, ending deforestation, and increasing reforestation. Ultimately, our role at COP30 is to redirect global efforts to the creation of conditions at the international level that facilitate and accelerate national efforts. The aim should be to help countries achieve these agreed goals in a fast and just manner.
To enable developing countries to overcome the barriers to pursuing a low-carbon development path – namely, unsustainable debt burdens and high borrowing costs – the global financial architecture must support climate goals. To that end, Brazil established the G20 Taskforce on a Global Mobilization against Climate Change during its presidency of the group last year. In Belém, we must establish a credible strategy to mobilize $1.3 trillion for developing countries and create a plan to align financial flows – public and private, national and international – with the Paris agreement targets. Governments and multilateral institutions will have multiple opportunities to advance negotiations on these issues throughout the year, including at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s spring and fall meetings and the International Conference on Financing for Development in June.
Given the increasing frequency and severity of climate shocks, adaptation has become a top priority, especially in vulnerable communities. This year, countries must finalize their national adaptation plans, specifying the private and public investment required to realize them. And at COP30, delegates should adopt the global adaptation indicators, creating a common language to discuss the impact of climate change around the world.
Focusing on adaptation does not imply reduced mitigation efforts. For much of the developing world, mitigation and adaptation happen simultaneously, as part of development. In today’s world, new homes, cities, energy sources, factories, and infrastructure must be built with both minimal emissions and maximum resiliency at their core.
As host of COP30, Brazil is committed to lead by example through decisive action at home and abroad. But one country acting alone cannot restore the trust needed for a successful summit. Every country must come to Belém committed to developing and implementing ambitious national goals, and to creating international enabling conditions that accelerate climate action that leaves no one behind. Only then can we make COP30 the climate turning point the world needs.