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Why the Renminbi Won’t Rule

As the US retreats from the world stage and a multipolar global order emerges, the international monetary system may well be transformed – but probably not into a renminbi-led system. Indeed, not even China expects the age of renminbi diplomacy to arrive anytime soon.

TOKYO – In the dystopian fantasy Blade Runner 2049, Los Angeles 32 years from now looks a lot like China’s megacities today: grey, polluted, and dominated by tall towers emblazoned with flashing neon advertisements. The viewer never learns much about the outside world, much less in what currency the advertised goods are traded. Is the US dollar still dominant, has the Chinese renminbi taken over, or has some other currency surged to global preeminence?

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