After the Greek Default
The Greek government, the European Commission, and the IMF are all denying what markets perceive clearly: Greece will eventually default on its debts to its private and public creditors. But even a default will provide no guarantee of a return to fiscal sustainability – and it will not fix Greece's equally unsustainable trade deficit.
CAMBRIDGE – The Greek government, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund are all denying what markets perceive clearly: Greece will eventually default on its debts to its private and public creditors. The politicians prefer to postpone the inevitable by putting public money where private money will no longer go, because doing so allows creditors to maintain the fiction that the accounting value of the Greek bonds that they hold need not be reduced. That, in turn, avoids triggering requirements of more bank capital.
CAMBRIDGE – The Greek government, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund are all denying what markets perceive clearly: Greece will eventually default on its debts to its private and public creditors. The politicians prefer to postpone the inevitable by putting public money where private money will no longer go, because doing so allows creditors to maintain the fiction that the accounting value of the Greek bonds that they hold need not be reduced. That, in turn, avoids triggering requirements of more bank capital.