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Boris Means Brexit

Podcasts Jul 30, 2019 Bill Emmott and Elmira Bayrasli

More than three years after the United Kingdom voted by a razor-thin margin to leave the European Union, the same question remains: How? Now, with a deadline to exit looming at the end of October, can the UK’s new prime minister, leading “Leave” campaigner Boris Johnson, deliver Brexit?

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Bill Emmott

Writing for PS since 2014
42 Commentaries

Bill Emmott, a former editor-in-chief of The Economist, is Chair of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Japan Society of the United Kingdom.

Elmira Bayrasli

Writing for PS since 2016
3 Commentaries

Elmira Bayrasli is the co-founder and CEO of Foreign Policy Interrupted and the author of From The Other Side of The World: Extraordinary Entrepreneurs, Unlikely Places.

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j. von Hettlingen Aug 1, 2019

Bill Emmott in his interview with Elmira Bayrasli gives hope that Britain may still be able to get out of this Brexit quagmire before October 31.
As Boris Johnson has inherited no working majority in Parliament from his predecessor, Theresa May, he might deem it necessary to call for a snap election ahead of October 31, in order to deliver Brexit. Under this new circumstance he would have to request for an extension of the deadline.
Johnson’s rationale is simple: since the EU would not compromise on the Irish backstop, he must get a strong confidence vote from supporters to crush out of the bloc without a deal. Given Jeremy Corbyn’s weakness, he believes the main opposition leader would be a weak contender, and not likely to pose a challenge. The Remainer vote would be split between the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Labour.
If Johnson assumes Remainers were defeatists and would stay at home, he would be sorely mistaken. Vehemently anti-Brexit, the Lib Dems, who won big during the European elections in May, could benefit hugely from a snap election. Jo Swinson, first woman to hold the role and, at 39, is the youngest current leader of a major UK party. She could become a kingmaker, siphoning votes from Corbyn and Johnson. Moreover, she could play a key role in promoting centrist politics in a deeply polarised country.
Remainers have been clamouring for a second referendum. This would become reality should Johnson and his Tory party fail to win an outright majority. There is the chance that Lib Dems, and the Greens win big. Together with the Scottish National Party and others that seek to remain in the EU, they can call for a second referendum. Brexiteers should not underestimate the turnout of young voters. And there is hope that they will tip the balance.
Johnson, known for flying by the seat of his pants, might even disappoint his own supporters. His optimism is on steroids and may just be a sales pitch. Impressed by Trump’s negotiating tactics, he opts for tough rhetoric, pretending that positive thinking could deliver an impossible cake-and-eat-it Brexit. At the end of the day, he might even end up convincing his supporters that Brexit were unrealistic.
This scenario is not far-fetched. When Johnson was made foreign minister by Theresa May in 2016, he seemed surprised and allegedly said: “Not bad for a hack.”
Emmott says he would not be surprised if Johnson said the same upon being elected party leader and prime minister. It shows that he does not have much visions other than ambitions, playing by ear as he drags along.
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