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To Russia With Love

Oct 4, 2019

French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent overtures to Russia have been described as both highly aspirational and deeply pragmatic. Whatever the case, much diplomatic and political wrangling will be needed to restore Russia to a position of good standing vis-à-vis the West.

In this Big Picture, Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations explains the French government’s thinking, and notes that success will depend on its ability to get all Europeans on board. And as Dominique Moisi of Sciences Po contends, there is little reason not to give Macron’s initiative a shot, given that the current Western strategy of containment has clearly failed. But Joschka Fischer, a former German foreign minister, disagrees, arguing that more divides Europe and Russia than mere politics. And as former Spanish foreign minister Ana Palacio warns, Europe will have to be mindful of Russia's renewed sources of strength when shaping its own diplomatic strategy.

Reflecting on the Kremlin’s perspective, Carnegie Moscow’s Alexander Gabuev and Elena Chernenko of Kommersant Publishing House argue that Russian President Vladimir Putin will participate in multilateral efforts only in cases where he has skin in the game. But, as former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt points out, the broader Russian elite sees little other strategic choice but to turn back toward the West at some point.

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Henk Crop Oct 16, 2019

Many interesting contributions. However I miss a few aspects.
That the great potential of economic cooperation between the West and Russia is not mentioned. That this development is blocked by the West because of Russian involvement in Crimea and Ukraine. However the West fails to see that it has driven Russia to this interference by its own offensive behavior towards Russia after the end of the Cold War. ( PS. The Russians are coming, Orenstein).
Russia has been handicapped by having to live behind an Iron Curtain for 70 years.
It has abandoned its communist ideology now. So it's time to invest in a normalization of relations between Russia and the West, which is of mutual interest.
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 6, 2019

To “Russia with love” – starring Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin.
Mark Leonard doubts whether Macron’s ambitious new initiative to "ease and clarify" the EU's relationship with Russia, will work, fearing it might come at the expense of Ukraine and EU member states that had been part of the Soviet Union. Macron believes engaging with Russia might be the best strategy to offset a threat posed to Europe, securing “control over its own future.” His other main objective is to lure Russia away from China.
The French “roadmap focuses on five key areas: disarmament, security dialogue, crisis management, values, and common projects.” Nevertheless it remains to be seen whether Putin has interest in resolving the conflict in Ukraine, although the newly elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky has made it his top priority. Even if Europe succeeds in luring Russia from China, “it is unclear whether the Trump administration would stand by and let the European initiative play out.” One never knows if Trump would “pursue a grand bargain” with Russia, which could leave the EU “hemmed in between the US and China.”

Dominique Moisi says Macron's “new policy of engagement toward Russia carries significant risks.” That relations with Europe deteriorated in recent years had much Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its aggression in Eastern Ukraine to thank for. He believes seeking a “rapprochement” with Russia “makes more sense than” containing this vast country, since Western efforts had only triggered Russia’s retaliation.
As vindictive as he is, Putin has been stirring the pot in Europe, backing far-right and anti-EU nationalist groups, and sowing discord, avenging Europe’s support of sanctions. In light of the geopolitical reality, Macron has made renewed efforts to improve EU-Russian relations, making it a “diplomatic priority to restore a climate of trust” between France and Russia, while raising heckles among Eastern EU members. Yet it is about convincing the Russians that their future is with Europe.

Joschka Fischer says Macron is right to worry about the disintegration of the global arms-control regime and a Russia that is increasingly tied to China. Yet it is unclear “what role Europe could play in renewing the global arms-control regime. Without the US, Europe has little to offer Russia on the issue of intermediate missiles.” The EU “would be stuck in the position of trying to convince two unwilling parties” – let alone China, which has its own missile capacity – “to reach a new agreement.”
But France’s new policy of engaging Russia carries risks, quasi legitimising Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its aggression in Eastern Ukraine. Given that the divide between Russia and the EU is over history and fundamental values – if Russian elite does not abandon its “nineteenth-century mentality,” and Putin his revisionist ambition, “there is no reason to think that the relationship can be improved anytime soon.”

Ana Palacio seems see Putin more as a “strategist” than a “spoiler,” noting his rising geopolitical clout since joining the war in Syria in September 2015. She says Russia is “a genuine global power broker,” citing Ukrainian president, Zelensky’s “acceptance of the so-called Steinmeier formula” that marks “a major step toward normalizing Russia’s presence in the country and its ties with Europe and the US” – a significant victory for Putin’s quest for global power.
In Syria, there seems no road to peace without Russia, which aims to maintain its long-term military presence in the war-torn country, after helping Assad recapture much of the territories. Russia’s “renewed prominence has come partly by default, owing to America’s retreat from global leadership.” However Europe still has a role to play.
France and Germany brought about the October 1 agreement in Ukraine. Macron seeks to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table. But she says Europe must “know exactly whom its efforts serve” and take on its “responsibility with great caution.” She hopes in the case of Ukraine, the agreement would not betray the spirit of the 2014 Maidan protests.

Alexander Gabuev and Elena Chernenko maintain Russia has no interest in seeing the rules-based global order “erode.” The Kremlin means it when it says, it supports international law and the role of the UN, because Russia, as a “formidable” military and veto-wielding power, exercises “a lot of influence” there. But the UN institutions are in a “crisis” which had been brought on “by American dominance.”
They highlight the Kremlin’s cynical response to the US breaking of international law – Russia should “break the American monopoly on breaking international law,” at least in cases “where it has skin in the game and the resources to enforce its will.” In the Kremlin’s view, this approach is “no different from what the US, China, India, and Iran are already doing” beyond their borders.
Their opinion is that “in the absence of a world truly governed by international law and the principles of the UN Charter, Russia’s preferred version of multilateralism is something akin to the nineteenth-century ‘Concert of Nations’ in Europe. Under such an arrangement, “a select few great powers should come together occasionally to discuss global issues and take collective action when their interests coincide.” But they would agree not to interfere in each other’s affairs, “in order to preserve their respective spheres of influence.” Russia will only cherry-pick issues that suit them.
Sadly, In the Kremlin’s view, “global warming does not pose an immediate threat to Russia, and thus is of little concern.” The problem is that Russia relies on oil and gas exports, industries that undermine climate goals.
Carl Bildt takes a look at the challenges Russia faces and the aspiration of those who long for change. But Putin’s top priority is preserving and improving Russia's position in the world hierarchy of powers and interests.
But achieving that will require a “structural reconstruction of the Russian economy.” Without far-reaching economic reforms – which are “radical changes” – Russia’s international standing will almost certainly decline. Sadly, many politicians are corruptly self-centred, enriching themselves as much as they can, as if there were no to-morrows.
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Steven Hillyard Oct 5, 2019

Every time I read Western analyses of world affairs, I get the feeling that our foreign policy elite are living in a different world. Neither Russia nor China is an enemy of Europe; China is 100 percent focused on development and not on colonizing Europe. Russia has exercised its military and diplomatic powers in Syria and won and will likely resolve its differences with Ukraine. It is now focusing on development and turning to China as a partner, which offers far more opportunities for development than Europe or the West in general. While Russia might end up as a junior partner to the largest economy on earth, at least it will be a partner. This will be in stark contrast to countries which seek to hold China back.

With America’s reliance on military and economic hegemony loosing credibility with other countries, Europe has the intellect for leading a reordering of the West’s foreign affairs priorities. But, it is hamstrung. Their complete integration with America’s banking and military infrastructure means that they cannot effectively think and act for themselves. Moreover, the diversity of views on foreign policy within the union makes it extremely difficult to chart an independent course, particularly with respect to Russia.

President Putin is smart, driven, focused and enjoys the support of his well educated people. He also has abundant natural resources to contribute to a partnership with China. He can contribute nuclear power and defense expertise as well.. China has an extremely effective government fully supported by the population. It’s middle class numbers above 400 million, about 100 million more people in the entire population of the United States, and it is well beyond the development tipping point. With a total population of about 1.3 billion, the human resources are astounding. There is no stopping them.

So, as nuclear powers, the West’s military cannot be used against either Russia or China. Economic sanctions won’t work, because the countries combined are too important to the world economy to try to isolate. So, in reality, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi Jinping are in the driver’s seat.
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