Throughout Syria’s seven-year-old conflict, the West – like Russia – has consistently put its own strategic interests before those of the country’s peaceful majority. Syrians want genuine democracy and equality under the law; but that will not happen until the extremists are removed from the equation.
PARIS – Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reached a deal to forestall a full-scale assault on Idlib by the Syrian regime. But even though the final “Battle of Idlib” has been avoided, that is no reason for the world to ignore what is still at stake in Syria.
The regime – along with its Russian and Iranian allies – is poised to achieve victory over the remaining so-called Syrian rebels, a collection of extremist groups that includes the Islamic State (ISIS) and the al-Nusra Front, as well as others who espouse a similarly poisonous and perverted ideology. Insofar as the Russian-Turkish deal saves civilian lives, it is to be welcomed. But if it ends up protecting extremists, it will not bring peace to the country.
In fact, now is the time for the international community to join forces to rid Syria of all Islamist groups across the board – not just ISIS and the al-Nusra Front, and not only in Idlib. That is the only way to ensure that no extremists are left to derail a future political solution to the conflict, or to launch terror attacks around the world. And with extremist forces checked and a political solution implemented, Syria would no longer be a battleground in the larger struggle for hegemony in the Middle East, because Turkish and Iranian troops, as well as the militias they support, also would have to leave.
The Potemkin Option
But while defeating the extremists and ensuring the orderly withdrawal of other powers are necessary steps toward a lasting peace, they are not sufficient to achieve that goal. As US Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently emphasized, a political settlement is imperative, and the US will not withdraw until one is in place.
Whatever political solution the United States has in mind, it is crucial that it not be a continuation of the same failed strategy that has been pursued since the beginning of the conflict. Syria urgently needs an inclusive and democratic settlement.
That won’t come easily. Russia and the Syrian regime are already trying to head off a truly democratic outcome by creating a docile “Syrian opposition” in Sochi, where Putin has been hosting talks. The delegations that have attended the negotiations are meant to look like a pluralistic, secular, and democratic force that will form a “National Unity Government” with the Syrian regime under the auspices of the United Nations. In fact, these delegations are largely a fabrication of the regime itself.
By making good with the “opposition,” the Syrian regime’s plan is to call for all “illegal” forces to leave Syria, and for the US and the European Union to provide funds for the country’s reconstruction. After so many years of bloodshed, a decimated Syria would be right where it was when the war began: ruled by an oppressive Iranian- and Russian-backed government.
One Way Out
In response to Russian requests that the US help fund reconstruction, General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made clear that a political transition and free and fair elections in Syria are prerequisites for US financial assistance. With the US sending an aircraft carrier to the region in response to Russia’s latest naval deployment, a political resolution is all the more important in order to prevent further military escalation. Without an all-inclusive, pluralistic, and genuinely democratic political process in Syria, the conflict will only continue, leading to the breakup of the country.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was right when he acknowledged before the UN General Assembly last month that the Syrian regime has already “won the war.” But he was also right to point out that it has not “won the peace.” Here, French President Emmanuel Macron has an opportunity to correct the failures of his predecessor, François Hollande, whose administration supported extremist opposition groups. Macron has already made a courageous stand against Erdoğan’s pan-Islamic, anti-European project. He should now push for a new and inclusive political process that does not allow Turkey and other powers to manipulate the conflict for their own ends.
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That said, whatever peace process is pursued must not leave any major powers on the “losing” side, as this would create a pretext for continued proxy wars in Syria. For too long, the conflict in Syria has not only divided its people, but has also been a proxy war for regional and global powers, with the absence of a resolution reflecting a failure of imagination. We assume that any peace settlement must mean victory for either the tyrannical regime or the Islamist rebels – and then waste time arguing over which is the lesser of two evils. But the only viable solution is both more audacious and more realistic than a “peace” based on victory for either side. That solution is a genuinely democratic Syria.
A democratic settlement would be a victory for the peaceful majority of Syrian people who reject both dictatorship and theocracy. Since the first demonstrations in 2011, the goal of most Syrians has been to achieve representative democracy, whereby all citizens would be equal under the law, regardless of religion, ethnicity, sect, or gender. Any attempt at a lasting peace that does not meet Syrians’ democratic aspirations is doomed to failure. A “peace deal” between an anti-democratic regime and its Islamist opponents would be no peace deal at all.
Unfortunately, for the past seven years, the West – just like the Russians – has allowed its regional allies to decide who should represent the Syrian people. Rather than allowing the Syrian people to choose their own future democratically by developing a viable alternative to both dictatorship and theocracy, the West has provided financial and military support to those proxies. That has left Syrians with only two choices: a murderous regime or murderous extremists.
This is precisely why the regime won support from many of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon during the 2014 presidential election. Many Syrians just want to go back to the life they had before the uprising, when there was relative security and access to electricity, education, medical facilities, and reasonably priced commodities.
What Price for Peace?
Any viable peace process must start with the inclusion of Syria’s silent majority – those who yearn for democracy even if they are not trying to fight their way to the negotiating table. By the same token, the process must exclude those who reject democracy, especially as many current combatants are not even Syrian.
For its part, the Trump administration has an opportunity to correct the mistakes made by the previous US administration, which allowed the West’s “allies” to back Islamists in the name of freedom. As long as Russia and at least some Western powers insist on choosing whom to support on the basis of their own strategic interests, any proposed solution will have ready-made opponents. Indeed, any solution that allows either a dictatorship or Islamists to achieve politically what they could not achieve militarily should be rejected.
By putting democratic principles first, both Russia and the West can secure their shared interest in peace and long-term security against terrorism, for which Syria is now a breeding ground. This is why I am calling for the international community as a whole to work toward a genuinely democratic peace process for my country.
The first step must be to end the violence. There are currently tens of thousands of foreign fighters on Syrian territory. These are not Syrians fighting for their own future, but adventurers from every corner of the globe, motivated by twisted ideologies, geopolitical ambition, or simply greed. Syria cannot make progress toward peace until they are gone.
Second, a legitimate and representative opposition movement must be convened under the auspices of the UN. All participating delegations must commit to the universal values of human rights, democracy, the rule of law, and equality, regardless of religion, sect, ethnic group, or gender. As long as a group subscribes to these values, no other member of the opposition should be able to veto its participation.
Unless these conditions are met, engaging with self-styled opposition groups would be tantamount to denying a voice to the Syrian majority, including ethnic and religious minorities and women. Fortunately, meeting these conditions would exclude Islamist extremists by default. Syria finally will be free of the poison that has blighted the so-called democratic opposition and rebel movement since the conflict began. Only then will we be able to draft a new, progressive constitution, to be ratified through a referendum, and hold parliamentary and presidential elections supervised by the UN.
As part of this process, all refugees who wish to return and participate in elections must be afforded the means to do so. They should have a stake in their country’s future. But the regime is trying to deny them that future by confiscating their property. There are around 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, one million in Lebanon, and 700,000 in Jordan. Abandoning these displaced people to their grim conditions would merely give the region and the world yet another extremist breeding ground to worry about. At a later stage, these people could be trained and armed by regional players to return to Syria and fight, thus fueling a never-ending conflict.
Closing the Wounds
Once an inclusive and pluralistic peace process is under way, the international community must develop a plan to rebuild Syria after seven years of devastating war. This will require international investment for the reconstruction of critical infrastructure, including hospitals, roads, and energy plants. And additional funding will be needed to supply educational facilities at all levels, and to provide proper housing for the millions of refugees and internally displaced persons who have lost their homes.
Europe benefited enormously from the Marshall Plan after World War II. One hopes that, with that legacy in mind, both the EU and the US will join with other global powers to rebuild Syria once a political settlement is achieved. Ideally, Russia, China, and the West should all be included in the reconstruction process.
Aside from the need for economic recovery and the restoration of civil infrastructure, there will also be emotional and psychological wounds to heal. To that end, Syrians and the international community should ready a national reconciliation program like that of post-apartheid South Africa. Though multiple parties in Syria bear obvious responsibility for crimes against humanity, all sides have been involved in atrocities. Thus, any resolution based on retribution will lead to a never-ending cycle of violence. In a tribal society such as Syria, revenge is a matter of honor, not justice.
I doubt that there is a single family in Syria that has not been touched by the conflict. All have reason to hate those they hold responsible for wrongs committed against them. It is thus essential that a process be put in place to enable all Syrians to come to terms with the past, and to face the future in a spirit of unity and magnanimity. To navigate the way ahead, we can draw on lessons from Lebanon, where opponents in that country’s decade-long civil war are now sharing power, with none behind bars. Only if Syrians take a similar approach can they start to rebuild their country together.
That process will not be easy, but we know what we must do. All foreign fighters must be removed from the country. A legitimate opposition excluding all those opposed to democracy must be convened under the auspices of the UN. And a new Marshall Plan, accompanied by a program for promoting truth and reconciliation, must be enacted to help Syrians rebuild and heal. These are the steps to a lasting peace and, ultimately, a progressive, secular, pluralistic, and genuinely democratic Syria.
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PARIS – Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reached a deal to forestall a full-scale assault on Idlib by the Syrian regime. But even though the final “Battle of Idlib” has been avoided, that is no reason for the world to ignore what is still at stake in Syria.
The regime – along with its Russian and Iranian allies – is poised to achieve victory over the remaining so-called Syrian rebels, a collection of extremist groups that includes the Islamic State (ISIS) and the al-Nusra Front, as well as others who espouse a similarly poisonous and perverted ideology. Insofar as the Russian-Turkish deal saves civilian lives, it is to be welcomed. But if it ends up protecting extremists, it will not bring peace to the country.
In fact, now is the time for the international community to join forces to rid Syria of all Islamist groups across the board – not just ISIS and the al-Nusra Front, and not only in Idlib. That is the only way to ensure that no extremists are left to derail a future political solution to the conflict, or to launch terror attacks around the world. And with extremist forces checked and a political solution implemented, Syria would no longer be a battleground in the larger struggle for hegemony in the Middle East, because Turkish and Iranian troops, as well as the militias they support, also would have to leave.
The Potemkin Option
But while defeating the extremists and ensuring the orderly withdrawal of other powers are necessary steps toward a lasting peace, they are not sufficient to achieve that goal. As US Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently emphasized, a political settlement is imperative, and the US will not withdraw until one is in place.
Whatever political solution the United States has in mind, it is crucial that it not be a continuation of the same failed strategy that has been pursued since the beginning of the conflict. Syria urgently needs an inclusive and democratic settlement.
That won’t come easily. Russia and the Syrian regime are already trying to head off a truly democratic outcome by creating a docile “Syrian opposition” in Sochi, where Putin has been hosting talks. The delegations that have attended the negotiations are meant to look like a pluralistic, secular, and democratic force that will form a “National Unity Government” with the Syrian regime under the auspices of the United Nations. In fact, these delegations are largely a fabrication of the regime itself.
By making good with the “opposition,” the Syrian regime’s plan is to call for all “illegal” forces to leave Syria, and for the US and the European Union to provide funds for the country’s reconstruction. After so many years of bloodshed, a decimated Syria would be right where it was when the war began: ruled by an oppressive Iranian- and Russian-backed government.
One Way Out
In response to Russian requests that the US help fund reconstruction, General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made clear that a political transition and free and fair elections in Syria are prerequisites for US financial assistance. With the US sending an aircraft carrier to the region in response to Russia’s latest naval deployment, a political resolution is all the more important in order to prevent further military escalation. Without an all-inclusive, pluralistic, and genuinely democratic political process in Syria, the conflict will only continue, leading to the breakup of the country.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was right when he acknowledged before the UN General Assembly last month that the Syrian regime has already “won the war.” But he was also right to point out that it has not “won the peace.” Here, French President Emmanuel Macron has an opportunity to correct the failures of his predecessor, François Hollande, whose administration supported extremist opposition groups. Macron has already made a courageous stand against Erdoğan’s pan-Islamic, anti-European project. He should now push for a new and inclusive political process that does not allow Turkey and other powers to manipulate the conflict for their own ends.
Don’t go back to school without Project Syndicate! For a limited time, we’re offering PS Digital subscriptions for just $50.
Access every new PS commentary, our suite of subscriber-exclusive content, and the full PS archive.
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That said, whatever peace process is pursued must not leave any major powers on the “losing” side, as this would create a pretext for continued proxy wars in Syria. For too long, the conflict in Syria has not only divided its people, but has also been a proxy war for regional and global powers, with the absence of a resolution reflecting a failure of imagination. We assume that any peace settlement must mean victory for either the tyrannical regime or the Islamist rebels – and then waste time arguing over which is the lesser of two evils. But the only viable solution is both more audacious and more realistic than a “peace” based on victory for either side. That solution is a genuinely democratic Syria.
A democratic settlement would be a victory for the peaceful majority of Syrian people who reject both dictatorship and theocracy. Since the first demonstrations in 2011, the goal of most Syrians has been to achieve representative democracy, whereby all citizens would be equal under the law, regardless of religion, ethnicity, sect, or gender. Any attempt at a lasting peace that does not meet Syrians’ democratic aspirations is doomed to failure. A “peace deal” between an anti-democratic regime and its Islamist opponents would be no peace deal at all.
Unfortunately, for the past seven years, the West – just like the Russians – has allowed its regional allies to decide who should represent the Syrian people. Rather than allowing the Syrian people to choose their own future democratically by developing a viable alternative to both dictatorship and theocracy, the West has provided financial and military support to those proxies. That has left Syrians with only two choices: a murderous regime or murderous extremists.
This is precisely why the regime won support from many of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon during the 2014 presidential election. Many Syrians just want to go back to the life they had before the uprising, when there was relative security and access to electricity, education, medical facilities, and reasonably priced commodities.
What Price for Peace?
Any viable peace process must start with the inclusion of Syria’s silent majority – those who yearn for democracy even if they are not trying to fight their way to the negotiating table. By the same token, the process must exclude those who reject democracy, especially as many current combatants are not even Syrian.
For its part, the Trump administration has an opportunity to correct the mistakes made by the previous US administration, which allowed the West’s “allies” to back Islamists in the name of freedom. As long as Russia and at least some Western powers insist on choosing whom to support on the basis of their own strategic interests, any proposed solution will have ready-made opponents. Indeed, any solution that allows either a dictatorship or Islamists to achieve politically what they could not achieve militarily should be rejected.
By putting democratic principles first, both Russia and the West can secure their shared interest in peace and long-term security against terrorism, for which Syria is now a breeding ground. This is why I am calling for the international community as a whole to work toward a genuinely democratic peace process for my country.
The first step must be to end the violence. There are currently tens of thousands of foreign fighters on Syrian territory. These are not Syrians fighting for their own future, but adventurers from every corner of the globe, motivated by twisted ideologies, geopolitical ambition, or simply greed. Syria cannot make progress toward peace until they are gone.
Second, a legitimate and representative opposition movement must be convened under the auspices of the UN. All participating delegations must commit to the universal values of human rights, democracy, the rule of law, and equality, regardless of religion, sect, ethnic group, or gender. As long as a group subscribes to these values, no other member of the opposition should be able to veto its participation.
Unless these conditions are met, engaging with self-styled opposition groups would be tantamount to denying a voice to the Syrian majority, including ethnic and religious minorities and women. Fortunately, meeting these conditions would exclude Islamist extremists by default. Syria finally will be free of the poison that has blighted the so-called democratic opposition and rebel movement since the conflict began. Only then will we be able to draft a new, progressive constitution, to be ratified through a referendum, and hold parliamentary and presidential elections supervised by the UN.
As part of this process, all refugees who wish to return and participate in elections must be afforded the means to do so. They should have a stake in their country’s future. But the regime is trying to deny them that future by confiscating their property. There are around 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, one million in Lebanon, and 700,000 in Jordan. Abandoning these displaced people to their grim conditions would merely give the region and the world yet another extremist breeding ground to worry about. At a later stage, these people could be trained and armed by regional players to return to Syria and fight, thus fueling a never-ending conflict.
Closing the Wounds
Once an inclusive and pluralistic peace process is under way, the international community must develop a plan to rebuild Syria after seven years of devastating war. This will require international investment for the reconstruction of critical infrastructure, including hospitals, roads, and energy plants. And additional funding will be needed to supply educational facilities at all levels, and to provide proper housing for the millions of refugees and internally displaced persons who have lost their homes.
Europe benefited enormously from the Marshall Plan after World War II. One hopes that, with that legacy in mind, both the EU and the US will join with other global powers to rebuild Syria once a political settlement is achieved. Ideally, Russia, China, and the West should all be included in the reconstruction process.
Aside from the need for economic recovery and the restoration of civil infrastructure, there will also be emotional and psychological wounds to heal. To that end, Syrians and the international community should ready a national reconciliation program like that of post-apartheid South Africa. Though multiple parties in Syria bear obvious responsibility for crimes against humanity, all sides have been involved in atrocities. Thus, any resolution based on retribution will lead to a never-ending cycle of violence. In a tribal society such as Syria, revenge is a matter of honor, not justice.
I doubt that there is a single family in Syria that has not been touched by the conflict. All have reason to hate those they hold responsible for wrongs committed against them. It is thus essential that a process be put in place to enable all Syrians to come to terms with the past, and to face the future in a spirit of unity and magnanimity. To navigate the way ahead, we can draw on lessons from Lebanon, where opponents in that country’s decade-long civil war are now sharing power, with none behind bars. Only if Syrians take a similar approach can they start to rebuild their country together.
That process will not be easy, but we know what we must do. All foreign fighters must be removed from the country. A legitimate opposition excluding all those opposed to democracy must be convened under the auspices of the UN. And a new Marshall Plan, accompanied by a program for promoting truth and reconciliation, must be enacted to help Syrians rebuild and heal. These are the steps to a lasting peace and, ultimately, a progressive, secular, pluralistic, and genuinely democratic Syria.