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EU global power Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images

Europe’s Moment of Truth

Many argue that Europe is too weak and divided to become a global power capable of filling the strategic void created by America’s inward turn, addressing China’s growing strength, and confronting Russian revisionism. Will the European Union’s new leaders prove the skeptics wrong?

In this Big Picture, Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, says that Europe must relearn the language of power and find the political will to realize its geopolitical potential. Likewise, Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister, suggests that Europe has massive diplomatic potential that can be realized only if it regains its collective self-confidence. More concretely, former German foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel and Michael Hüther of the German Economic Institute highlight five areas where Europe must take responsibility for its strategic interests.

But George Soros says European leaders do not fully recognize the threat that China under President Xi Jinping poses to the EU’s founding values, and urges them to challenge Xi over his failure to uphold human rights. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, meanwhile, says the EU should pursue a policy of wary strategic engagement with China, not least to help preserve the global trade system and tackle climate change.

Indeed, former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer argues that becoming a climate-policy great power should be Europe’s top priority. And economist Dambisa Moyo proposes a broader agenda, with the EU establishing itself as a global player in promoting trade, regulating Big Tech, mediating the US-China rivalry, and defending Western values.

Featured in this Big Picture

  1. Josep BorrellJosep Borrell
  2. Ana PalacioAna Palacio
  3. Sigmar GabrielSigmar Gabriel
  4. Michael HütherMichael Hüther
  5. George SorosGeorge Soros
  6. Carl BildtCarl Bildt
  7. Joschka FischerJoschka Fischer
  8. Dambisa MoyoDambisa Moyo
palacio102_Christian Thiel EyeEm Getty Images_EUflagsky Christian Thiel/EyeEm/Getty Images

Europe Must Avoid Self-Fulfilling Pessimism

Despite the pessimism that has pervaded Europe in recent years, the fact is that the EU remains an economic and regulatory superpower, with massive diplomatic potential. If Europeans recognize this, regain their collective self-confidence, and take constructive action, their future can be bright.

MADRID – Over the last decade, the requisite year-end reflections and predictions have become increasingly bleak. This pessimism is understandable: inequality has been rising sharply in much of the world; democratic values and norms of governance have been steadily eroded; and technology has transformed our societies and economies so rapidly that many have been left feeling overwhelmed and insecure. But we must take care not to allow grim predictions to become self-fulfilling prophecies.

Consider the European Union. As their international clout has declined, Europeans have been made to feel increasingly powerless, as individuals, as nations, and as a bloc. Without a unifying vision for the future, the EU has lost its élan and fallen victim to passivity and fear under the guise of nostalgia.

But the past for which many Europeans long never actually existed, and the present that they eschew isn’t nearly as bad as it seems: Europe remains an economic and regulatory superpower, with massive diplomatic potential. If Europeans recognize this and regain their collective self-confidence, their future can be bright.

The call for Europeans to “believe in themselves” may sound naive and simplistic. But it is a prerequisite for effective action. This does not mean pursuing some grand federalist platform or making unrealistic promises, such as to form a European military. On the contrary, the last thing the EU needs is more soaring rhetoric and impossible pledges. Its failure to deliver in the past on such promises has contributed to today’s overwhelming sense of helplessness and cynicism.

Instead, the EU needs to make concrete, incremental progress to boost its credibility. Here, there is reason for hope – beginning with the newly confirmed European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen. Although the new Commission has indulged in familiar-sounding grandiloquence, it also embodies an unusual degree of realism. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the selection of a German president for the first time since the 1960s. The EU has abandoned the pretense that there are no standout powers within the bloc, in favor of recognizing that the only way to get things done is to secure the buy-in of its most influential members.

Moreover, the EU has indicated a willingness to explore the potential of different cooperative configurations to propel the policy agenda. For example, there is growing momentum for a European Security Council, a proposal introduced by France and Germany, to strengthen European foreign policy and underpin security cooperation with a post-Brexit United Kingdom.

Such a UK will emerge very soon, given the overwhelming victory of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in the recent election. Johnson campaigned on a promise to get the UK out of the EU by January 31, and meeting that deadline would be a good outcome. As undesirable as Brexit may be, dragging out the process hasn’t done anyone much good. Finally ending the three-and-a-half-year saga will allow for greater strategic clarity.

Another major source of uncertainty may also be removed next year: US President Donald Trump. Perhaps no development has done more to fuel insecurity among Europeans than Trump’s capricious attacks on the transatlantic relationship over the last three years. If he is defeated in the November presidential election, the relationship won’t simply return to its pre-Trump state, but predictability will be restored, and Europeans will be able to breathe a sigh of relief.

Even a victory for Trump, however, will provide some measure of clarity. It will be apparent that the United States can no longer be counted on as a strategic partner. Rather than try to wait out Trump, let alone count on him, Europe would move forward on its own.

A final reason for hope about Europe’s prospects in 2020 is its growing recognition of the threat that a rising China poses to the liberal international order. In March, the EU labeled China a “systemic rival.” Early this month, at the NATO leaders’ meeting in London, the EU went further, acknowledging that China’s rise poses “challenges that we need to address together as an Alliance.” This raises hopes that Europe will not be so blinded by the promise of Chinese finance and investment that it fails to uphold its values and protect its long-term interests.

The challenges Europe faces – including managing migration and developing a new Africa strategy – may be formidable, but they are hardly insurmountable. Progress will require strategic vision, political will, and effective execution. But first, it will require far more self-confidence.

gabriel7_Kay Nietfeldpicture alliance via Getty Images_europegermanysoldierflags Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images
ximilitary_closershot_GettyImages886265420 Xinhua/Li Tao via Getty Images
bildt71_HOW HWEE YOUNGAFP via Getty Images_vonderleyenchinaarmy How Hwee Young/AFP via Getty Images
fischer165_Getty Images_europe Getty Images
moyo16_Daniel DayGetty Images_EUflagsun Daniel Day/Getty Images
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