Germany’s Post-Merkel Era Begins

The inconclusive outcome of Germany’s September 26 federal election will likely mean lengthy talks on forming a new government coalition, and it is currently unclear who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor. With different permutations possible, many are wondering what will come next for Germany, the European Union, and the broader international order.

In this Big Picture, Princeton University’s Jan-Werner Mueller argues that, while the far right seems set to be a lasting feature of the German political landscape, the election outcome showed that mainstream parties can succeed without attempting to co-opt it. Melvyn B. Krauss of New York University hopes that strong performances by the Greens and the Social Democratic Party mean German economic policy will start to look to the future, rather than merely the present. But Princeton’s Harold James fears that the election result signals the final disintegration of the country’s long-standing near-two-party system, and could mark the beginning of a new era of political fragmentation and paranoia.

Sigmar Gabriel, a former foreign minister and vice chancellor in Merkel’s government, argues that the election campaign highlighted the lack of a blueprint for where Germany and Europe should go in the next decade, beyond the need to address climate change. But former foreign minister and vice chancellor Joschka Fischer thinks the election may lead to a new era in which German politicians will finally have to take high-stakes decisions.

Likewise, former Spanish foreign minister Ana Palacio thinks that Merkel’s departure may force the EU’s leaders to start making tough choices regarding rule-breakers and autocrats both within and beyond the Union’s borders. But Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations notes that German public opinion has soured on the country’s European policy, and urges the country’s political class to change its rhetoric before resentment boils over. 

As for Merkel’s legacy, the Brookings Institution’s Constanze Stelzenmüller emphasizes the chancellor’s steady purposefulness in keeping Europe, transatlantic relations, and the West together, and worries that her successors will fail to appreciate how important and effective this approach was.