machado2_SCHNEYDER MENDOZAAFP via Getty Images_machado Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

Venezuela’s New Dawn

During his decade in power, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s economic mismanagement has led to staggering poverty and hyperinflation. Despite the regime’s efforts to undermine opposition leaders ahead of the critical 2024 presidential election, Venezuelans are ready for change.

CARACAS – Venezuela is on the cusp of a profound transformation. An organized popular movement is mobilizing to oust President Nicolás Maduro through lawful and institutional means. I am honored to help spearhead this effort to restore my country’s democracy, alongside a diverse coalition of citizens, professionals, and political and social leaders.

My country’s spectacular economic collapse is notorious worldwide. Years of negative growth under Maduro has resulted in staggering poverty and mass migration, with estimates suggesting that nearly 25% of the population has left since 2015. No one sincerely believes economic recovery is possible under the corrupt, dictatorial, and criminal regime that has been in power for the past quarter-century.

Twenty-five years ago, Venezuela was the wealthiest country in Latin America; today, it is one of the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. From 2012 to 2022, GDP plummeted by an astonishing 75%, with no signs of bottoming out. The bolivar, Venezuela’s national currency, has experienced unprecedented depreciation, resulting in hyperinflation reminiscent of the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe in 2008, and Hungary and Greece in the aftermath of World War II.

As a result of Maduro’s economic mismanagement, Venezuela’s health-care system is in ruins, with more than 60% of hospitals lacking clean water. Our education system is falling apart, with teachers earning an average of $20 per month and public-school students attending classes only two days a week.

This grim reality is a direct result of the “twenty-first-century socialism” introduced by Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez. The regime Chávez created depends for its survival on predatory and parasitic practices, and has thus gone to great lengths to protect its hold on power, for example by taking control of the judiciary and silencing independent media.

Under Maduro’s leadership, the regime has expropriated and ruined thriving companies, eliminated well-paying private-sector jobs, expanded government bureaucracy, run the state-owned oil company PDVSA into the ground, and recklessly increased public spending, causing the national debt to soar to more than 200% of GDP. The country’s massive oil revenues, which totaled more than $1 trillion between 1999 and 2019, have been either squandered or stolen.

BLACK FRIDAY SALE: Subscribe for as little as $34.99
BF2024-Onsite-1333x1000

BLACK FRIDAY SALE: Subscribe for as little as $34.99

Subscribe now to gain access to insights and analyses from the world’s leading thinkers – starting at just $34.99 for your first year.

Subscribe Now

Compounding Venezuela’s challenges, both Chávez and Maduro cultivated ties with countries such as Russia, Iran, China, and Cuba, whose geopolitical interests clash with those of Western liberal democracies. These countries have little to offer in economic terms, save for their desire to purchase oil at discounted rates. Moreover, the regime has alienated Venezuela’s neighbors by aligning with drug cartels and Colombian guerrilla groups. Islamic terrorist groups have also gained a foothold in Venezuela, seemingly with the government’s tacit approval.

For a long time, Venezuelans felt overwhelmed by the regime’s brutality and the daily struggle to support their families. But the current wave of public protests represents an unprecedented opportunity. Surveys consistently show that Venezuelans are among the most fervent supporters of democracy in Latin America. Unable to revive the economy or win popular support, Maduro’s authoritarianism is on increasingly shaky ground.

Change could be coming sooner than many realize. Faced with Chavismo’s political and economic failures, Venezuelans have set their sights on an ambitious path – constitutional, peaceful, and electoral – toward freedom and prosperity. On October 22, a primary election chose me as the opposition’s presidential candidate. Despite the regime’s efforts to disrupt the process, we in the opposition are determined to see a unified and legitimate leadership elected.

A credible leader with proven popular support would be positioned to cultivate effective collaboration with the international community, creating incentives for all key stakeholders to support Venezuela’s democratic transition. This shift would tilt the balance of power, compelling the Maduro regime to engage in constructive and pragmatic dialogue.

If the presidential election, slated for late 2024 according to the Venezuelan constitution, were held today, I would most likely defeat Maduro by a landslide. For this reason, Maduro illegally and arbitrarily barred me from holding public office for 15 years. But this decision only bolsters support for my cause.

Our advocacy of an electoral path to power is not naive. We are well aware that current conditions in Venezuela do not allow for free and fair elections. For that, several conditions must be met, the most pressing being the reversal of the bans imposed on me and other opposition leaders. Similarly, the release of political and military prisoners is widely recognized as a prerequisite. But identifying the right combination of incentives and guarantees is essential to persuade the regime to meet these conditions.

We firmly believe that orderly democratization is more feasible than ever, and we are determined to make the most of this unique opportunity. By optimizing the use of our hydrocarbon reserves, becoming a reliable and competitive supplier, and harnessing our vast potential for hydro, wind, solar, and hydrogen production, Venezuela could emerge as the Americas’ premier energy hub.

Should we prevail, our goal is to establish Venezuela as a reliable ally of Western liberal democracies and persuade the millions of Venezuelans who have fled to return home. Their skills, knowledge, and experience are needed to catalyze the reconstruction of our great country.

I urge the international community to provide Venezuelans with the support they need. We will not relent in our quest to achieve a democratic transition; victory is within our reach.

https://prosyn.org/lRubvIr