Was the Stock-Market Boom Predictable?
While the conventional wisdom holds that it is never possible to "time the market," it might seem that major shifts – like the quadrupling of the US stock market over the last decade – should be at least partly foreseeable. Why aren't they?
https://prosyn.org/qgb5TXK
NEW HAVEN – Should we have known in March 2009 that the United States’ S&P 500 stock index would quadruple in value in the next ten years, or that Japan’s Nikkei 225 would triple, followed closely by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index? The conventional wisdom is that it is never possible to “time the market.” But moves as big as these, it might seem, must have been at least partly foreseeable.