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Will High Interest Rates Trigger a Debt Disaster?

Once again, larger deficits and higher debt-to-GDP ratios in rich countries have become fodder for fiscal hawks and bond vigilantes to warn of a looming crisis that will demand a return to austerity. But the case for such pessimism has no logical or historical basis.

AUSTIN – In a recent commentary for the Financial Times, Martin Wolf trots out the specter of a “public-debt disaster,” that recurrent staple of bond-market chatter. The essence of his argument is that since debt-to-GDP ratios are high, and eminent authorities are alarmed, “fiscal crises” in the form of debt defaults or inflation “loom.” And that means something must be done.

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