The Upside of Polarization?
A mix of factors has loosened the hold of the “median voter theorem” on American electoral politics. But out-of-touch extremism by one party still offers opportunities for others to build broad coalitions, winning not just the middle but the majority.
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CAMBRIDGE – While there are no ironclad laws of politics, two tendencies in the United States – midterm swings against the incumbent party (the “midterm blues”) and the negative electoral effects of inflation and unemployment (“political business cycles”) – come pretty close. US President Joe Biden (whose approval rating has sunk for the past year) and the Democrats should not be surprised if they suffer a massive rout in the 2022 midterm elections.