If parliamentary elections were held in Poland today, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition would probably lose to an illiberal right-wing alliance comprising the populist former ruling party, Law and Justice, and the ascendant far-right Confederation. But all hope is not yet lost.
WARSAW – One year after a coalition led by Donald Tusk defeated Poland’s right-wing ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), the mood in the country is subdued. While a victory by pro-democracy parties in a free, but decidedly unfair, election was necessary, it was not sufficient to eliminate the illiberal populist threat. Prying PiS’s tentacles out of every nook and cranny of the state is proving to be a much longer process. In the meantime, PiS is seeking political advantage from the opposition benches.
Were another election to be held today, an estimated 47-48% of eligible voters would go to the polls, which would be one of the lowest turnouts in the last 20 years, and far lower than the record 75% turnout last year. Such findings stand in stark contrast to those of a year ago, when young people voted in droves, particularly young women, and proved to be the decisive factor in PiS’s defeat.
Almost nothing is left of this previous mobilization. Half of those recently surveyed (51%) identify fairly or very little with the government’s program and message.Worse, PiS has retained its support, and support for the far-right Confederation alliance has doubled over the past year.
Many Poles still remember that PiS oversaw a wide range of financial transfers, including large child-support and pension payments. A fresh election, according to current polls, would probably replace Tusk’s government (which has around 28% support) with a coalition of PiS (30%) and the Confederation (15%). Around 31% of Poles who intend to vote in the next election would choose differently than they did last year.
Even more important than any snapshot are the broader trend lines, which increasingly favor the Confederation and disfavor two parties in Tusk’s coalition: the Left and Third Way. Although Tusk’s Civic Coalition has gained a strong base of voters, the Confederation’s gains have been bigger. While 61% of those voting for the Confederation in 2023 want to do so again (and 59% for PiS), only half of Civic Coalition and Left voters are willing to double down on their choice.
Supporters of the Left and Third Way are the most disappointed in the results of their victory a year ago. For example, typical supporters of the Left are dismayed that the government has merely introduced administrative changes to decriminalize abortion, rather than legalizing it. This issue matters, because it has become a key indicator of whether Poland is advancing as a modern country or returning to its benighted Catholic past. It doesn’t help that the co-ruling Left is dominated by men, despite relying on a predominantly female electoral base.
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Other segments of the Civic Coalition’s electorate are disappointed by the lack of progress in restoring the rule of law and holding PiS politicians accountable for abuse of power. Most of these efforts have been blocked by the PiS-linked president, Andrzej Duda. Moreover, the state’s dwindling coffers make it difficult to offer any quick material benefits to Polish voters, as PiS did.
Third Way, for its part, is experiencing a crisis of both engagement and leadership, and it comprises two parties that ultimately are incompatible: Sejm Speaker Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 party and Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz’s conservative Polish People’s Party. Each is threatened not only by demobilization of their traditional voters, but also by Tusk’s party, Civic Platform, and the Confederation.
The Confederation’s leader, Krzysztof Bosak, is increasingly popular across many segments of the electorate, commanding the support of half of all men under 40. The party did, however, make a serious mistake by nominating Sławomir Mentzen as its candidate for the presidential election next year. As a party leader, he is popular with the rank and file, but not with the broader public.
Unlike PiS, the Confederation has the potential to attract disillusioned voters from almost any party. It offers a more honest version of right-wing conservatism than PiS does, and it is unencumbered by the former ruling party’s innumerable scandals. Some two-thirds of those recently surveyed, including one-third of PiS voters, believe that at least some PiS politicians or officials deserve to be in prison. Among the top names on the list are former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (who 34% think should be prosecuted); PiS’s longtime leader, Jarosław Kaczyński (30%); and former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro (19%).
But Tusk is not blind to the threat that the Confederation poses. His new immigration policy – which temporarily prohibits asylum in Poland for applicants from Russia and Belarus – is meant to head off the far right.
Moreover, a happy ending to the story remains possible. The next presidential election must be held by May 18, 2025, and it could remove the biggest obstacle to the government’s progress. The clear frontrunner is Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of Civic Platform, who is polling at around 33%, whereas no other candidate exceeds 8%. His election would be the breakthrough that Tusk and the rest of Poland’s pro-democracy coalition need.
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WARSAW – One year after a coalition led by Donald Tusk defeated Poland’s right-wing ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), the mood in the country is subdued. While a victory by pro-democracy parties in a free, but decidedly unfair, election was necessary, it was not sufficient to eliminate the illiberal populist threat. Prying PiS’s tentacles out of every nook and cranny of the state is proving to be a much longer process. In the meantime, PiS is seeking political advantage from the opposition benches.
Were another election to be held today, an estimated 47-48% of eligible voters would go to the polls, which would be one of the lowest turnouts in the last 20 years, and far lower than the record 75% turnout last year. Such findings stand in stark contrast to those of a year ago, when young people voted in droves, particularly young women, and proved to be the decisive factor in PiS’s defeat.
Almost nothing is left of this previous mobilization. Half of those recently surveyed (51%) identify fairly or very little with the government’s program and message. Worse, PiS has retained its support, and support for the far-right Confederation alliance has doubled over the past year.
Many Poles still remember that PiS oversaw a wide range of financial transfers, including large child-support and pension payments. A fresh election, according to current polls, would probably replace Tusk’s government (which has around 28% support) with a coalition of PiS (30%) and the Confederation (15%). Around 31% of Poles who intend to vote in the next election would choose differently than they did last year.
Even more important than any snapshot are the broader trend lines, which increasingly favor the Confederation and disfavor two parties in Tusk’s coalition: the Left and Third Way. Although Tusk’s Civic Coalition has gained a strong base of voters, the Confederation’s gains have been bigger. While 61% of those voting for the Confederation in 2023 want to do so again (and 59% for PiS), only half of Civic Coalition and Left voters are willing to double down on their choice.
Supporters of the Left and Third Way are the most disappointed in the results of their victory a year ago. For example, typical supporters of the Left are dismayed that the government has merely introduced administrative changes to decriminalize abortion, rather than legalizing it. This issue matters, because it has become a key indicator of whether Poland is advancing as a modern country or returning to its benighted Catholic past. It doesn’t help that the co-ruling Left is dominated by men, despite relying on a predominantly female electoral base.
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Other segments of the Civic Coalition’s electorate are disappointed by the lack of progress in restoring the rule of law and holding PiS politicians accountable for abuse of power. Most of these efforts have been blocked by the PiS-linked president, Andrzej Duda. Moreover, the state’s dwindling coffers make it difficult to offer any quick material benefits to Polish voters, as PiS did.
Third Way, for its part, is experiencing a crisis of both engagement and leadership, and it comprises two parties that ultimately are incompatible: Sejm Speaker Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 party and Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz’s conservative Polish People’s Party. Each is threatened not only by demobilization of their traditional voters, but also by Tusk’s party, Civic Platform, and the Confederation.
The Confederation’s leader, Krzysztof Bosak, is increasingly popular across many segments of the electorate, commanding the support of half of all men under 40. The party did, however, make a serious mistake by nominating Sławomir Mentzen as its candidate for the presidential election next year. As a party leader, he is popular with the rank and file, but not with the broader public.
Unlike PiS, the Confederation has the potential to attract disillusioned voters from almost any party. It offers a more honest version of right-wing conservatism than PiS does, and it is unencumbered by the former ruling party’s innumerable scandals. Some two-thirds of those recently surveyed, including one-third of PiS voters, believe that at least some PiS politicians or officials deserve to be in prison. Among the top names on the list are former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (who 34% think should be prosecuted); PiS’s longtime leader, Jarosław Kaczyński (30%); and former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro (19%).
But Tusk is not blind to the threat that the Confederation poses. His new immigration policy – which temporarily prohibits asylum in Poland for applicants from Russia and Belarus – is meant to head off the far right.
Moreover, a happy ending to the story remains possible. The next presidential election must be held by May 18, 2025, and it could remove the biggest obstacle to the government’s progress. The clear frontrunner is Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of Civic Platform, who is polling at around 33%, whereas no other candidate exceeds 8%. His election would be the breakthrough that Tusk and the rest of Poland’s pro-democracy coalition need.