The Great Macro Divergence
Ten years ago, nearly all advanced economies fell off the cliff simultaneously. Nowadays, they are neither structurally nor cyclically aligned, and they are unevenly vulnerable to recession, which makes international policy coordination both more necessary and more difficult.
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PARIS – “The global expansion has peaked,” the OECD warns in its latest economic outlook, and performance could be weaker if downside risks materialize. The party is not over yet: global growth is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020, though at a slower pace. But forecasters are notoriously bad at spotting macroeconomic turning points, and the road ahead is hard to read.