As recently as 2022, most monetary economists expected interest rates to remain low indefinitely. While many analysts still expect near-zero interest rates to return, they will likely remain elevated for the foreseeable future, making it harder for governments to service their debts.
CAMBRIDGE – What a difference two years make. In 2021, when interest rates were near zero in the United States and the United Kingdom and slightly negative in the eurozone and Japan, the consensus was that they would remain low indefinitely. Astonishingly, as recently as January 2022, investors put the probability of rates in the US, eurozone, and the UK rising above 4% within five years at only 12%, 4%, and 7%, respectively. After adjusting for expected inflation, real interest rates were negative and projected to stay that way.
CAMBRIDGE – What a difference two years make. In 2021, when interest rates were near zero in the United States and the United Kingdom and slightly negative in the eurozone and Japan, the consensus was that they would remain low indefinitely. Astonishingly, as recently as January 2022, investors put the probability of rates in the US, eurozone, and the UK rising above 4% within five years at only 12%, 4%, and 7%, respectively. After adjusting for expected inflation, real interest rates were negative and projected to stay that way.