Where Will the Global Economy Land in 2024?
Heading into 2024, most economists and market analysts have adopted a baseline scenario in which most major economies avoid both a recession and renewed inflation – the much-desired "soft landing." But the current encouraging consensus could still be derailed by any number of factors, not least geopolitics.
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NEW YORK – Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts – including me – expected that the US and global economy would suffer a recession. Falling but still-sticky inflation suggested that monetary policy would grow tighter before rapidly easing once the recession hit; stock markets would fall, and bond yields would remain high.