Yellen and mnuchin Uwe Anspach/AFP/Getty Images

The Truth Behind Today’s US Inflation Numbers

When the US Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in December 2015, it issued a median forecast that, in retrospect, significantly overstated the strength of the US economy. This suggests that the Fed's monetary policies, in combination with fiscal policies, are not doing enough to stimulate the US economy.

BERKELEY – In December 2015, the US Federal Reserve embarked on a monetary-tightening cycle, by raising the target range for the short-term nominal federal funds rate by 25 basis points (one-quarter of a percentage point). At the time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the Fed body that sets monetary policy – issued a median forecast predicting three things.

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