The EU is now divided between those that view Russia as a potential partner which can be drawn into the EU’s orbit through a process of “creeping integration,” and those that view Russia as a threat whose expansionism and contempt for democracy must be rolled back through a policy of “soft containment.” But neither approach will work.
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Russia’s Duma elections this December are almost certain to cement the power of forces loyal to Vladimir Putin. That outcome is likely to confirm Russia’s emergence as the most divisive issue in the European Union since Donald Rumsfeld split the continent into “old” and “new” Europe. In the 1990’s, EU members found it easy to agree on a common approach to Russia. They coalesced around a strategy of democratizing and westernizing a weak and indebted Russia.