A Humbling Economy for Economists
Many major macroeconomic developments over the past year have departed from the consensus forecast, exposing the limitations of economists and financial analysts' understanding. Although there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the global economy, key indicators now support a more cautiously optimistic outlook.
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LONDON – Given all the uncertainty in the world economy today, we have been reminded that for all the authority economics commands, it is still a social science. Many major developments over the past year have departed from the consensus forecast, exposing the limitations of our understanding.