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Unlike during his first term, US President Donald Trump no longer seems to care if his policies wreak havoc in financial markets. This time around, Trump seems to be obsessed with his radical approach to institutional deconstruction, which includes targeting the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank.
explains why the US president’s second administration, unlike his first, is targeting all three.
According to the incoming chair of US President Donald Trump’s
Council of Economic Advisers, America runs large trade deficits and
struggles to compete in manufacturing because foreign demand for US
financial assets has made the dollar too strong. It is not a persuasive
argument.
is unpersuaded by the argument made by presidential advisers for unilaterally restructuring global trade.
By launching new trade wars and ordering the creation of a Bitcoin reserve, Donald Trump is assuming that US trade partners will pay any price to maintain access to the American market. But if he is wrong about that, the dominance of the US dollar, and all the advantages it confers, could be lost indefinitely.
doubts the US administration can preserve the greenback’s status while pursuing its trade and crypto policies.
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慕尼黑——有关2015-2017年欧盟委员会3150亿欧元(合3900亿美元)投资计划的更多细节终于水落石出。由欧盟委员会主席让 - 克洛德·容克于11月宣布的这项计划实际相当于规模庞大的影子预算,将为公共投资项目提供两倍于欧盟年度官方预算的巨额支持并最终协助政府避开稳定与增长公约规定的债务限制。
该借款安排将假手新的欧洲战略投资基金,在欧洲投资银行的保护伞下进行运作。该投资基金将拨备50亿欧元的启动资金,其中部分来自以欧盟委员会160亿欧元担保为后盾对欧洲投资银行现有资产进行重估。该基金预计将以此撬动约630亿欧元的信贷资产,每借出一块欧元预计将使私人投资者取得5欧元左右的产出——由此计算总投资将接近3150万欧元的目标。
虽然欧盟国家不会提供任何实际资金,但他们会为私人投资者提供隐性及显性担保,这与欧元债券所隐含的连带责任颇有相似之处。德国总理安格拉·默克尔断然拒绝欧元债券提议后,欧盟组织了大批金融专家寻找创造性的规避方式。欧洲战略投资基金就是他们煞费苦心想出的方式。
虽然基金到2015年年中之前都无法实际运行,但欧盟成员国已经上报了多个项目提请欧洲委员会审议。截止十二月初,全部28个欧盟成员国政府均已提交了申请——而且申请项目仍在不断增加。
我所领导的 伊佛经济研究所在对申请文件进行评估时发现,近2,000个潜在项目将总共耗资1.3万亿欧元,其中2017年年底前需要投入的部分约为5,000亿。其中约53%将用于公共项目;15%用于公私合作(PPPs);21%投向私人项目;仅有略多于10%的项目无法进行归类。
公共项目想必会涉及欧洲战略投资基金,由政府承担利息支付和分期摊销。公私合作将带来混合融资,由私营实体在承担部分风险的同时获得部分收益。私人项目将包括提供基础设施,通过私人运营商收取过路费或使用费来偿还债务。
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我不像其他某些批评者那样认为该计划无法支撑欧洲经济体的需求。毕竟,计划于3年内投资完成的这3,150亿欧元占欧盟年GDP2.3%的份额。如此庞大的投资势必会产生影响。
但上述计划在法律上仍然非常可疑,因为它凭空创造了与欧盟和国家预算平行运作的巨额影子预算,从而将巨大的风险负担强加在纳税人头上。因为国家无论其资信状况都可以以相同的利率借用资金,且很多项目申请国因为不久前刚刚烧光巨额资金而无法再次从金融市场获得融资。就像危机期间采取的许多其他“保护”措施一样,这种对市场过程的扭曲将有助于巩固欧洲投资资本的次优配置,并对未来几年的经济增长构成阻碍作用。
雪上加霜的是,这种债务共同化带来的新增借款仅有一小部分将被纳入国家预算之中。这会导致欧盟范围内债务管理协议形同虚设,包括将总体赤字限制在GDP3%的稳定与增长公约,以及2012年 “财政契约”,该契约规定债务占GDP比率超过60%的国家在完全符合契约规定前必须每年削减二十分之一的债务。
近年来,银行一直因通过特殊用途工具和管道、利用影子预算过度承担风险而饱受指责。欧盟现在也在采用类似的措施,这即便从最保守的意义上讲也非常令人担任。
翻译:Xu Binbin