Debating the Confidence Fairy
Confidence affects government decision-making, but it does not affect the results of decisions. Except in extreme cases, it cannot cause a bad policy to have good results, and a lack of it cannot cause a good policy to have bad results, any more than believing that humans can fly can offset the effect of gravity.
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LONDON – In 2011, the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman characterized conservative discourse on budget deficits in terms of “bond vigilantes” and the “confidence fairy.” Unless governments cut their deficits, the bond vigilantes will put the screws to them by forcing up interest rates. But if they do cut, the confidence fairy will reward them by stimulating private spending more than the cuts depress it.