The Chinese government is likely to face a tricky economic policy choice in the second half of this year. If it loosens its fiscal stance, public finances will worsen significantly. But if it cuts expenditure to offset the pandemic-related revenue shortfall, growth will be lower, with dire consequences.
BEIJING – COVID-19 hit the Chinese economy hard in the first quarter of 2020, causing real GDP to contract by 6.8% year on year. But since the city of Wuhan emerged from lockdown in early April, the economy has gradually returned to normal, and grew by 3.2% in the second quarter. According to the consensus view, China’s current potential GDP growth rate is 6%. If it achieves this in the second half of 2020, the economy could post full-year annual growth of 2.5%.
BEIJING – COVID-19 hit the Chinese economy hard in the first quarter of 2020, causing real GDP to contract by 6.8% year on year. But since the city of Wuhan emerged from lockdown in early April, the economy has gradually returned to normal, and grew by 3.2% in the second quarter. According to the consensus view, China’s current potential GDP growth rate is 6%. If it achieves this in the second half of 2020, the economy could post full-year annual growth of 2.5%.