7d5d2d0446f86f380e303f24_pa3444c.jpg Paul Lachine

Changing China’s Growth Path

The goal of China's new Five-Year Plan is to recompose (not expand) aggregate demand, in order to sustain growth and avoid the diminishing-returns trap that is the principal risk of the current investment pattern. But changing that pattern will require many simultaneous transitions.

MILAN – China is poised to begin its transition from middle-income to developed-country status. Relatively few economies (five to be precise, all in Asia: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore) successfully managed this transition while sustaining high growth rates. No country of China’s size and diversity has ever done so.

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