A Spanish Disquisition
At first sight, the idea that Spain could descend into chaos is puzzling. But the actors in the conflict between Catalonia and Spain are facing what political scientists call a social dilemma: either side gains from selfish behavior unless the other side behaves selfishly, too, in which case both sides lose.
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GOTHENBURG – Within a few days, the Catalan regional parliament may declare Catalonia’s independence, after 500 years of history with Spain. A few hours afterwards, the Spanish government may respond by sending thousands of police to detain top Catalan officials, putting an end to 40 years of prosperous self-rule. In turn, many Catalans may take to the streets, launching a revolt with scary consequences.