Polling data show that Donald Trump’s supporters were deeply misinformed about most of the campaign’s defining issues. Only if this is attributable to bad actors exploiting a broken information ecosystem, rather than an electoral majority that chooses to be misinformed, can there be hope of a healthier politics in America.
BERKELEY – Three days after Donald Trump’s victory in this year’s US presidential election, my friend Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research tweeted: “I hate to put a lot of highly paid pundits out of business, but look at this f**king graph.” The accompanying image was an Ipsos infographic headlined: “Misinformed views on immigration, crime, the economy correlated with ballot choice.”
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in early October, potential voters who knew or assumed that violent crime was not at or near all-time highs favored Kamala Harris by a 65-percentage-point margin, whereas those who were misinformed broke for Donald Trump by a 26-point margin. Likewise, among those who understood that inflation had declined over the past year, Harris was up by 53 points, whereas Trump was up by 19 points among the misinformed. Among those who knew that the stock market was at an all-time high, Harris was up by 20; and among those who knew that southern border crossings had declined, Harris was up by 59.
What are we dealing with here? Do Trump voters express misinformed beliefs about violent crime rates, the inflation rate, the stock market, and border crossings because they are Trump voters, or are they Trump voters because they truly believe these falsehoods and are genuinely fearful for their country’s future? If it is the latter, one must ask how they came to hold these false beliefs. And once we understand that, we need to figure out what to do about an information ecosystem that hoodwinked millions of people and turned our politics into a clown show.
At this point, the people who want to misinform you will show up and cry: “But there were lots of border crossings! There was a violent crime wave!” (Never mind that it started under Trump). “Inflation was high!” (Actually, it was moderate: the peak annual rate was 9% in the year ending June 2022, but 3% in the year ending June 2023, and 2.4% in the year ending September 2024.) “Okay, but people get confused when asked about complex economic matters! What they really meant was that prices had risen and had not come down!” (As if deflation would help anyone.)
Of course, the same people will be quiet about the stock market, because everybody knows that it is at or near record highs. Equities indices are how the mainstream media keep score when it comes to reporting on the economy. News bites about new record highs are frequent and ubiquitous.
The same people also will be quiet if you probe their beliefs. I will grant that people might not know how fast things have changed or know the difference between high inflation and higher prices. But everyone knows that you can always pan a camera to find a few examples of just about anything in the world, depending on what you are looking for. At the same time, most Americans who look around their own neighborhoods or check their retirement accounts will know that they and their real-world friends and colleagues are doing just fine. Their 401(k)s are way up, and no Haitians are barbecuing cats.
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This brings us back to the question of whether people are misinformed because they want to be. If Trump asks his supporters whether they are going to believe him or their lying eyes, will they choose him? Or are we dealing with the work of some bad actors who have devoted considerable effort to bringing about this state of affairs?
If the answer is that more than half of the electorate wants to be misinformed, America – and indeed human civilization – is in serious trouble. This would imply that what tens of millions of Americans really want is a greenlight to hate their fellow citizens. But if we are confronting the work of cynical bad actors, that at least gives us some hope for the future. It would mean that the bulk of Trump supporters are good-hearted, well-meaning people who worry that the country is heading in the wrong direction, even if they themselves are doing fine. They voted for Trump more out of love than hate.
In that case, the task for Americans who want a healthier politics and a better society is clear. Unfortunately for Democrats, though, it is a task that must carried out by Republicans. In our broken information ecosystem, nothing that Democrats say will be believed by those who need to hear it. Well-meaning, patriotic Republicans need to look at themselves and adopt the project that Viscount Sherbrooke articulated after the 1867 extension of the franchise in Britain: We – or, rather, you – must educate our masters.
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While the Democrats have won some recent elections with support from Silicon Valley, minorities, trade unions, and professionals in large cities, this coalition was never sustainable. The party has become culturally disconnected from, and disdainful of, precisely the voters it needs to win.
thinks Kamala Harris lost because her party has ceased to be the political home of American workers.
This year’s many elections, not least the heated US presidential race, have drawn attention away from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku. But global leaders must continue to focus on combating the climate crisis and accelerating the green transition both in developed and developing economies.
foresees multilateral development banks continuing to play a critical role in financing the green transition.
BERKELEY – Three days after Donald Trump’s victory in this year’s US presidential election, my friend Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research tweeted: “I hate to put a lot of highly paid pundits out of business, but look at this f**king graph.” The accompanying image was an Ipsos infographic headlined: “Misinformed views on immigration, crime, the economy correlated with ballot choice.”
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in early October, potential voters who knew or assumed that violent crime was not at or near all-time highs favored Kamala Harris by a 65-percentage-point margin, whereas those who were misinformed broke for Donald Trump by a 26-point margin. Likewise, among those who understood that inflation had declined over the past year, Harris was up by 53 points, whereas Trump was up by 19 points among the misinformed. Among those who knew that the stock market was at an all-time high, Harris was up by 20; and among those who knew that southern border crossings had declined, Harris was up by 59.
What are we dealing with here? Do Trump voters express misinformed beliefs about violent crime rates, the inflation rate, the stock market, and border crossings because they are Trump voters, or are they Trump voters because they truly believe these falsehoods and are genuinely fearful for their country’s future? If it is the latter, one must ask how they came to hold these false beliefs. And once we understand that, we need to figure out what to do about an information ecosystem that hoodwinked millions of people and turned our politics into a clown show.
At this point, the people who want to misinform you will show up and cry: “But there were lots of border crossings! There was a violent crime wave!” (Never mind that it started under Trump). “Inflation was high!” (Actually, it was moderate: the peak annual rate was 9% in the year ending June 2022, but 3% in the year ending June 2023, and 2.4% in the year ending September 2024.) “Okay, but people get confused when asked about complex economic matters! What they really meant was that prices had risen and had not come down!” (As if deflation would help anyone.)
Of course, the same people will be quiet about the stock market, because everybody knows that it is at or near record highs. Equities indices are how the mainstream media keep score when it comes to reporting on the economy. News bites about new record highs are frequent and ubiquitous.
The same people also will be quiet if you probe their beliefs. I will grant that people might not know how fast things have changed or know the difference between high inflation and higher prices. But everyone knows that you can always pan a camera to find a few examples of just about anything in the world, depending on what you are looking for. At the same time, most Americans who look around their own neighborhoods or check their retirement accounts will know that they and their real-world friends and colleagues are doing just fine. Their 401(k)s are way up, and no Haitians are barbecuing cats.
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Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.
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This brings us back to the question of whether people are misinformed because they want to be. If Trump asks his supporters whether they are going to believe him or their lying eyes, will they choose him? Or are we dealing with the work of some bad actors who have devoted considerable effort to bringing about this state of affairs?
If the answer is that more than half of the electorate wants to be misinformed, America – and indeed human civilization – is in serious trouble. This would imply that what tens of millions of Americans really want is a greenlight to hate their fellow citizens. But if we are confronting the work of cynical bad actors, that at least gives us some hope for the future. It would mean that the bulk of Trump supporters are good-hearted, well-meaning people who worry that the country is heading in the wrong direction, even if they themselves are doing fine. They voted for Trump more out of love than hate.
In that case, the task for Americans who want a healthier politics and a better society is clear. Unfortunately for Democrats, though, it is a task that must carried out by Republicans. In our broken information ecosystem, nothing that Democrats say will be believed by those who need to hear it. Well-meaning, patriotic Republicans need to look at themselves and adopt the project that Viscount Sherbrooke articulated after the 1867 extension of the franchise in Britain: We – or, rather, you – must educate our masters.