Now that the dust of the Gulf War has settled over the Middle East, it is clear that some unexpected winners have emerged, blinking in the sunlight. Across the Gulf, Shia Muslims are waking up to their growing political power, their ability to organize themselves - and the gift that lies literally under their feet. Oil.
After years of repression at the hands of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi Shia are tasting freedom - and spurring their religious counterparts throughout the Gulf to become more assertive. They’ve also woken up to the accident of geography that has placed the world’s major oil supplies in areas where they form the majority - Iran, the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and southern Iraq. Welcome to the new commonwealth of “Petrolistan.”
Their new-found power in this volatile region therefore represents a major challenge to both the old Sunni ruling establishments - outside Iran - and to the United States. The years of Shia subservience are over. Now they are about to make waves.
So what are the Shia planning? What is their inspiration? If they want democracy - will anyone recognize it? Will they be ruled by bearded men in turbans and veiled women - or will we see suits and high heels?
It wasn’t until 1979 that the Shia first appeared on western radar screens, emerging in Iran, at the head of a violent revolution that murdered thousands and despatched the Shah into history. In Western eyes they became the hostile and militant face of Islam, intent on exporting violence.
Their Sunni counterparts, even the most fundamentalist Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia, appeared by contrast nicely tame. But the terrorist attacks on America of September 11, 2001 rewrote that idea for good. The hijackers were all Sunni. Their hosts - the Taliban were also Sunni, so are all the prisoners at Guantanamo Bay. In the space of a few months, therefore, Sunni Muslims took over from the Shia as threat number one.
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For their part, the Shia minorities claim to welcome democracy. But then minorities - especially with a history of subjugation - always do, because it allows them to express their cultural identity and religious freedom.
In Saudi Arabia, the Shia are at the forefront of those welcoming democratic change and participation. Although they constitute only 20% of the total Saudi population, they form a majority -75% - of the population in the oil-rich region.
Saudi Arabia’s Shia have suffered discrimination in the professions: in the military, in high government positions, the diplomatic corps, and most significantly, in the oil industry, where they have been excluded since the 1980’s. This systematic neutering of the Shia in Saudi Arabia is legitimised by the Wahhabi religious establishment and supported by numerous fatwas denouncing them as heretics.
In Bahrain, the Shia who form 75% of the population have been keen on the reforms initiated by King Hamad Al-Khalifah. They have opted for political power under the Sunni minority rather than associating with Iran’s form of government. But the new generation of Bahraini Shia are more militant, and their views are increasingly echoed by their Shia counterparts in Saudi Arabia.
It was the threat of Shia militancy, exported from Iran, that led the region’s rulers to set up the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1981 and attempt to pool their strengths. That move was too little too late. There was a coup attempt in Bahrain that same year, which came hard on the heels of a Shia uprising in Saudi Arabia the year before.
Today Iran no longer exports revolution. Its experiment with an Islamic form of democracy is now primarily an internal affair. In any case none of the Iraqi Ayatollahs who were once exiled in Iran, have any inclination to adopt the Iranian model.
So far the Shia in Iraq have been relatively quiet, watching the de-Ba’athification process and biding their time. But since the capture of Saddam Hussein, they have become increasingly assertive. It is on the insistence of the Shia that the United States has had to continually rewrite its blueprint for Iraq.
From being the region’s losers of the last few decades, the Shia now have the chance to redress the balance, settle old scores - and control the wealth of Petrolistan. But they won’t succeed without a struggle - that may in turn be long and bloody.
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Now that the dust of the Gulf War has settled over the Middle East, it is clear that some unexpected winners have emerged, blinking in the sunlight. Across the Gulf, Shia Muslims are waking up to their growing political power, their ability to organize themselves - and the gift that lies literally under their feet. Oil.
After years of repression at the hands of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi Shia are tasting freedom - and spurring their religious counterparts throughout the Gulf to become more assertive. They’ve also woken up to the accident of geography that has placed the world’s major oil supplies in areas where they form the majority - Iran, the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and southern Iraq. Welcome to the new commonwealth of “Petrolistan.”
Their new-found power in this volatile region therefore represents a major challenge to both the old Sunni ruling establishments - outside Iran - and to the United States. The years of Shia subservience are over. Now they are about to make waves.
So what are the Shia planning? What is their inspiration? If they want democracy - will anyone recognize it? Will they be ruled by bearded men in turbans and veiled women - or will we see suits and high heels?
It wasn’t until 1979 that the Shia first appeared on western radar screens, emerging in Iran, at the head of a violent revolution that murdered thousands and despatched the Shah into history. In Western eyes they became the hostile and militant face of Islam, intent on exporting violence.
Their Sunni counterparts, even the most fundamentalist Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia, appeared by contrast nicely tame. But the terrorist attacks on America of September 11, 2001 rewrote that idea for good. The hijackers were all Sunni. Their hosts - the Taliban were also Sunni, so are all the prisoners at Guantanamo Bay. In the space of a few months, therefore, Sunni Muslims took over from the Shia as threat number one.
Secure your copy of PS Quarterly: The Year Ahead 2025
Our annual flagship magazine, PS Quarterly: The Year Ahead 2025, has arrived. To gain digital access to all of the magazine’s content, and receive your print copy, subscribe to PS Digital Plus now.
Subscribe Now
For their part, the Shia minorities claim to welcome democracy. But then minorities - especially with a history of subjugation - always do, because it allows them to express their cultural identity and religious freedom.
In Saudi Arabia, the Shia are at the forefront of those welcoming democratic change and participation. Although they constitute only 20% of the total Saudi population, they form a majority -75% - of the population in the oil-rich region.
Saudi Arabia’s Shia have suffered discrimination in the professions: in the military, in high government positions, the diplomatic corps, and most significantly, in the oil industry, where they have been excluded since the 1980’s. This systematic neutering of the Shia in Saudi Arabia is legitimised by the Wahhabi religious establishment and supported by numerous fatwas denouncing them as heretics.
In Bahrain, the Shia who form 75% of the population have been keen on the reforms initiated by King Hamad Al-Khalifah. They have opted for political power under the Sunni minority rather than associating with Iran’s form of government. But the new generation of Bahraini Shia are more militant, and their views are increasingly echoed by their Shia counterparts in Saudi Arabia.
It was the threat of Shia militancy, exported from Iran, that led the region’s rulers to set up the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1981 and attempt to pool their strengths. That move was too little too late. There was a coup attempt in Bahrain that same year, which came hard on the heels of a Shia uprising in Saudi Arabia the year before.
Today Iran no longer exports revolution. Its experiment with an Islamic form of democracy is now primarily an internal affair. In any case none of the Iraqi Ayatollahs who were once exiled in Iran, have any inclination to adopt the Iranian model.
So far the Shia in Iraq have been relatively quiet, watching the de-Ba’athification process and biding their time. But since the capture of Saddam Hussein, they have become increasingly assertive. It is on the insistence of the Shia that the United States has had to continually rewrite its blueprint for Iraq.
From being the region’s losers of the last few decades, the Shia now have the chance to redress the balance, settle old scores - and control the wealth of Petrolistan. But they won’t succeed without a struggle - that may in turn be long and bloody.