Once upon a time, policymakers understood that the government should tweak asset supplies to ensure sufficient supplies of liquid assets, safe assets, and savings vehicles, so that pressure to deleverage would not push production below potential output. But this basic principle of macroeconomic management has gone out the window.
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BERKELEY – In the 12 years of the Great Depression – between the stock-market crash of 1929 and America’s mobilization for World War II – production in the United States averaged roughly 15% below the pre-depression trend, implying a total output shortfall equal to 1.8 years of GDP. Today, even if US production returns to its stable-inflation output potential by 2017 – a huge “if” – the US will have incurred an output shortfall equivalent to 60% of a year’s GDP.