The Economic Consequences of the Arab Revolt
Unstable political transitions in the Middle East could lead to high levels of social disorder, organized violence, and/or civil war. And, given the current risk-sensitivity of oil prices, the economic pain could spread far beyond the region.
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NEW YORK – Political turmoil in the Middle East has powerful economic and financial implications, particularly as it increases the risk of stagflation, a lethal combination of slowing growth and sharply rising inflation. Indeed, should stagflation emerge, there is a serious risk of a double-dip recession for a global economy that has barely emerged from its worst crisis in decades.