A Phantom Recovery?
Today’s consensus among economists is that the recession is already over, that the US and global economy will rapidly return to growth, and that there is no risk off a relapse. But the end of the global recession will be closer at the end of this year than it is now, the recovery will be anemic rather than robust, and there is a rising risk of a double-dip recession.
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NEW YORK – Where is the American and global economy headed? Last year, there were two sides to the debate. One camp argued that the recession in the United States would be V-shaped – short and shallow. It would last only eight months, like the two previous recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001, and the world would decouple from the US contraction.