The Dead Cat Bounce
Mild signs that the rate of economic contraction is slowing in the US, China, and other parts of the world have led many investors to talk of “green shoots” of recovery, causing stock markets around the world to rally. But the emerging optimistic consensus is not supported by the facts.
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NEW YORK – Mild signs that the rate of economic contraction is slowing in the United States, China, and other parts of the world have led many economists to forecast that positive growth will return to the US in the second half of the year, and that a similar recovery will occur in other advanced economies. The emerging consensus among economists is that growth next year will be close to the trend rate of 2.5%.