Learning About Growth from Austerity
All countries face complex choices with respect to the timing of austerity, perceived sovereign credit risk, and growth-oriented reforms. Today, advanced countries' previous emphasis on austerity may be giving way to a more balanced approach to boosting economic growth and employment.
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MILAN – In a recent set of studies, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff used a vast array of historical data to show that the accumulation of high levels of public (and private) debt relative to GDP has an extended negative effect on growth. The size of the effect incited debate about errors in their calculations. Few, however, doubt the validity of the pattern.