North Cape

The Global Economy Confronts Four Geopolitical Risks

Several key issues – US monetary policy, weak commodity prices, debt crises, and the like – are likely to affect the global economy in the year ahead. But the main longer-term risks are geopolitical, stemming from four sources: Russia, China, the Middle East, and cyberspace.

CAMBRIDGE – The end of the year is a good time to consider the risks that lie ahead of us. There are of course important economic risks, including the mispricing of assets caused by a decade of ultra-low interest rates, the shifts in demand caused by the Chinese economy’s changing structure, and European economies’ persistent weakness. But the main longer-term risks are geopolitical, stemming from four sources: Russia, China, the Middle East, and cyberspace.

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