The Black Hole in America’s GDP
The massive downturn in the US economy will last longer and be more damaging than previous recessions, because it is driven by an unprecedented loss of household wealth. While the fiscal stimulus package will boost activity in the short term, those who expect a sustained recovery to begin in the second half of 2009 are almost certainly overly optimistic.
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CAMBRIDGE – The massive downturn in American’s economy will last longer and be more damaging than previous recessions, because it is driven by an unprecedented loss of household wealth. Although the fiscal stimulus package that President Obama recently signed will give a temporary boost to activity sometime this summer, the common forecast that a sustained recovery will begin in the second half of 2009 will almost certainly prove to be overly optimistic.