How Fast Will China Grow?
As China's unprecedented economic rise begins to slow, the country's future growth can be predicted by looking at its potential growth rate, as well as external and internal factors. Policymakers drawing up the country's next five-year plan should look to history as well as current conditions as guides in setting growth targets.
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BEIJING – In the 35 years since China’s transition to a market economy began, the country has grown at an average rate of 9.8% – an explosive and unprecedented rise. But there are signs that the Chinese miracle is coming to an end – or at least that the country’s economic growth is slowing. China’s growth rate has been falling since the first quarter of 2010. In 2014, it was a relatively anemic 7.4%.